I agree that it was probably a mistake to pause for a whole week. However, they were correct to look into the matter. May I reframe this a bit? (I still plan on writing my own, more comprehensive piece on all this—your posts are helping me sort this out).
Deep breath—here goes.
We are asking people to get vaccinated for the common good—because there’s an emerging consensus that all the vaccines help mitigate transmission.
It really does appear that for some vaccines (the ones using adenovirus vectors), there’s an increased risk of a very rare type of blood clot for some people (women 18 to 55). The personal risk of death from Covid for that group is lower than it is for the general population.
In other words, we’re asking some people to put their lives on the line for the common good. Yes, the absolute numbers are small, but that shouldn’t be a distraction. Women between 18 and 55 need to be offered mRNA vaccines first. Everybody else should consider it their civic duty to get an adenovirus vector vaccine. And women between 18 and 55 who get one of the adenovirus vector vaccines need to be fully informed and at the very least sincerely thanked—possibly with money.
In other words, we’re asking some people to put their lives on the line for the common good.
As a note, this doesn’t yet follow from your (1) and (2). It would follow from a stronger version of (2), in which these people are more likely to die if they get this vaccination than if they don’t. (Roughly, more likely to die from this vaccination than from Covid—but the vaccine risk is conditional on getting vaccinated, and the Covid risk is conditional on not getting vaccinated, not conditional on getting Covid.)
Fair enough. I believe that it’s been noted that in some places (Australia) the stronger version of (2) really does hold. I’m not sure if (1) still holds, but it’s conceivable that it could. Either way, you’re comparing two very small numbers and my meta-point is that it’s still something that bears analyzing. Thanks for keeping me on my toes.
I agree that it was probably a mistake to pause for a whole week. However, they were correct to look into the matter. May I reframe this a bit? (I still plan on writing my own, more comprehensive piece on all this—your posts are helping me sort this out).
Deep breath—here goes.
We are asking people to get vaccinated for the common good—because there’s an emerging consensus that all the vaccines help mitigate transmission.
It really does appear that for some vaccines (the ones using adenovirus vectors), there’s an increased risk of a very rare type of blood clot for some people (women 18 to 55). The personal risk of death from Covid for that group is lower than it is for the general population.
In other words, we’re asking some people to put their lives on the line for the common good. Yes, the absolute numbers are small, but that shouldn’t be a distraction. Women between 18 and 55 need to be offered mRNA vaccines first. Everybody else should consider it their civic duty to get an adenovirus vector vaccine. And women between 18 and 55 who get one of the adenovirus vector vaccines need to be fully informed and at the very least sincerely thanked—possibly with money.
As a note, this doesn’t yet follow from your (1) and (2). It would follow from a stronger version of (2), in which these people are more likely to die if they get this vaccination than if they don’t. (Roughly, more likely to die from this vaccination than from Covid—but the vaccine risk is conditional on getting vaccinated, and the Covid risk is conditional on not getting vaccinated, not conditional on getting Covid.)
Fair enough. I believe that it’s been noted that in some places (Australia) the stronger version of (2) really does hold. I’m not sure if (1) still holds, but it’s conceivable that it could. Either way, you’re comparing two very small numbers and my meta-point is that it’s still something that bears analyzing. Thanks for keeping me on my toes.
I could also add #3 - non-pharmaceutical interventions are still perfectly legit.