I agree that insofar as Yudkowsky predicted that AGI would be built by hobbyists with no outsized impacts, he was wrong.
ETA: So yes, I was ignoring the “literally portrayed” bit, my bad, I should have clarified that by “yudkowsky’s prediction” I meant the prediction about takeoff speeds.
I do have substantial credence (~15%?) on AGI being built by hobbyists/small teams. I definitely think it’s more likely to be built by huge teams with huge computers, like most recent advances. But my guess is that physics permits vastly more algorithmic efficiency than we’ve discovered, and it seems pretty plausible to me—especially in worlds with longer timelines—that some small group might discover enough of it in time.
I agree that insofar as Yudkowsky predicted that AGI would be built by hobbyists with no outsized impacts, he was wrong.
ETA: So yes, I was ignoring the “literally portrayed” bit, my bad, I should have clarified that by “yudkowsky’s prediction” I meant the prediction about takeoff speeds.
I do have substantial credence (~15%?) on AGI being built by hobbyists/small teams. I definitely think it’s more likely to be built by huge teams with huge computers, like most recent advances. But my guess is that physics permits vastly more algorithmic efficiency than we’ve discovered, and it seems pretty plausible to me—especially in worlds with longer timelines—that some small group might discover enough of it in time.