I think you’re mixing up “very unlikely” and “very impactful”. I think you can still make the point that a small probability of a huge negative impact is enough to make different decisions than you normally would’ve.
I actually disagree. Thinking about a raw number like 0.1%, what determines whether it is considered big or small? I think the answer is the context. 0.1% is small if we’re talking about the chances that a restaurant gets your order wrong, but big if we’re talking about the chances that you win the lottery, I think.
You’re right. Some people use it to mean “larger than base rates”, and this case, you’re arguing that the chance of nuclear war affecting the US is much larger than it was.
Isn’t that “very unlikely”?
Given that we’re talking a substantial nuclear attack, I wouldn’t say so.
I would call that something like “very unlikely but still worth thinking about due to the severity”, hence this post
I think you’re mixing up “very unlikely” and “very impactful”. I think you can still make the point that a small probability of a huge negative impact is enough to make different decisions than you normally would’ve.
I actually disagree. Thinking about a raw number like 0.1%, what determines whether it is considered big or small? I think the answer is the context. 0.1% is small if we’re talking about the chances that a restaurant gets your order wrong, but big if we’re talking about the chances that you win the lottery, I think.
You’re right. Some people use it to mean “larger than base rates”, and this case, you’re arguing that the chance of nuclear war affecting the US is much larger than it was.