I think you’re mixing up “very unlikely” and “very impactful”. I think you can still make the point that a small probability of a huge negative impact is enough to make different decisions than you normally would’ve.
I actually disagree. Thinking about a raw number like 0.1%, what determines whether it is considered big or small? I think the answer is the context. 0.1% is small if we’re talking about the chances that a restaurant gets your order wrong, but big if we’re talking about the chances that you win the lottery, I think.
You’re right. Some people use it to mean “larger than base rates”, and this case, you’re arguing that the chance of nuclear war affecting the US is much larger than it was.
I think you’re mixing up “very unlikely” and “very impactful”. I think you can still make the point that a small probability of a huge negative impact is enough to make different decisions than you normally would’ve.
I actually disagree. Thinking about a raw number like 0.1%, what determines whether it is considered big or small? I think the answer is the context. 0.1% is small if we’re talking about the chances that a restaurant gets your order wrong, but big if we’re talking about the chances that you win the lottery, I think.
You’re right. Some people use it to mean “larger than base rates”, and this case, you’re arguing that the chance of nuclear war affecting the US is much larger than it was.