It would likely require decades of advocacy by prediction market supporters before mainstream opinion shapers feel constrained to acknowledge that these markets constitute expert opinions.
I don’t think it would take that long. If a prediction market says X is correct and a decision makers decides for Y they have afterwards a lot less excuses for making the wrong decision. It’s easy for political opponents to write articles saying that the person was stupid for making the decision as the prediction market said something else. Articles that are easily written without doing any hard research.
Blame minimization is very important for individual decision makers so it will affect decision making even when it won’t always get people to follow the predicion market.
I don’t think it would take that long. If a prediction market says X is correct and a decision makers decides for Y they have afterwards a lot less excuses for making the wrong decision. It’s easy for political opponents to write articles saying that the person was stupid for making the decision as the prediction market said something else. Articles that are easily written without doing any hard research.
Blame minimization is very important for individual decision makers so it will affect decision making even when it won’t always get people to follow the predicion market.