COVID deaths in 2020 if rapid at-home tests are not approved by July 1.
COVID deaths in 2020 if most states keep schools closed all year.
COVID deaths in 2020 if most states reopen schools in September.
Vaccinations in winter 2021 if vaccine manufacturers are paid at least $1000 per dose for the first 10 million doses.
Vaccinations in winter 2021 if vaccine manufacturers are paid at most $100 per dose for the first 10 million doses.
Some contracts that would have been informative in October:
COVID deaths in 2021 if state health agencies are put in charge of most vaccinations.
COVID deaths in 2021 if drug stores are put in charge of most vaccinations.
COVID deaths in 2021 if hospitals are put in charge of most vaccinations.
It would likely require decades of advocacy by prediction market supporters before mainstream opinion shapers feel constrained to acknowledge that these markets constitute expert opinions. But if they did acknowledge that expertise enough for it to alter government policies, I’d guess that 2 or 3 of those policy changes would have cut COVID deaths by about 10% each.
It would likely require decades of advocacy by prediction market supporters before mainstream opinion shapers feel constrained to acknowledge that these markets constitute expert opinions.
I don’t think it would take that long. If a prediction market says X is correct and a decision makers decides for Y they have afterwards a lot less excuses for making the wrong decision. It’s easy for political opponents to write articles saying that the person was stupid for making the decision as the prediction market said something else. Articles that are easily written without doing any hard research.
Blame minimization is very important for individual decision makers so it will affect decision making even when it won’t always get people to follow the predicion market.
Here are some pairs of contracts that would have been informative last spring:
Vaccinations in 2020 if human challenge trials are started by June 1.
Vaccinations in 2020 if human challenge trials are not started by June 1.
COVID deaths in 2020 if rapid at-home tests are approved by July 1.
COVID deaths in 2020 if rapid at-home tests are not approved by July 1.
COVID deaths in 2020 if most states keep schools closed all year.
COVID deaths in 2020 if most states reopen schools in September.
Vaccinations in winter 2021 if vaccine manufacturers are paid at least $1000 per dose for the first 10 million doses.
Vaccinations in winter 2021 if vaccine manufacturers are paid at most $100 per dose for the first 10 million doses.
Some contracts that would have been informative in October:
COVID deaths in 2021 if state health agencies are put in charge of most vaccinations.
COVID deaths in 2021 if drug stores are put in charge of most vaccinations.
COVID deaths in 2021 if hospitals are put in charge of most vaccinations.
It would likely require decades of advocacy by prediction market supporters before mainstream opinion shapers feel constrained to acknowledge that these markets constitute expert opinions. But if they did acknowledge that expertise enough for it to alter government policies, I’d guess that 2 or 3 of those policy changes would have cut COVID deaths by about 10% each.
I don’t think it would take that long. If a prediction market says X is correct and a decision makers decides for Y they have afterwards a lot less excuses for making the wrong decision. It’s easy for political opponents to write articles saying that the person was stupid for making the decision as the prediction market said something else. Articles that are easily written without doing any hard research.
Blame minimization is very important for individual decision makers so it will affect decision making even when it won’t always get people to follow the predicion market.