Hmm. I notice that I was not as specific as you are. I didn’t say anything about what “most” life forms would be like or whether there would be lots of smart life forms. I haven’t really done a thorough retrodiction on evolution, to tell the truth. But I am really liking this new imagination trick of “try to predict the past if the theory was true” (which is subtly different from my other tricks like “is there anything in the past that supports / refutes this?”) and it’s pleasant atheism-promoting effect on the remnants of my dead agnosticism phase. I’m glad I asked this question and that Gwern helped.
Thinking it out, I do not agree with your green goo hypothesis. I think that as long as there were mutations in the green goo’s pattern (and stability in this pattern would be the exception not the rule due to the complexity of making a self-replicating, self-incarnating pattern, and due to environmental differences more complex and diverse than the green goo’s pattern would be able to expect) and as long as there was always room for improvement (for something this complex that evolved randomly, perfection in the pattern would be the exception not the rule) it would have to change and mutate and new variations would inevitably emerge.
What would it take to have that kind of stability in life forms? Other than a perfectly stable planet? The life game is very, very complex.
I think, perhaps, a drastic reduction in the number of physical laws (when you have all kinds of neat toys to play with from electricity to friction, room for improvement is immense), as well as the number of substances available (otherwise the goo will only expand and encounter new things which promote adaptations), it MIGHT result in a simple life form becoming “perfect” for it’s environment and then stabilizing it’s genes as a way of optimizing perfection.
I think diversity and increasing improvement is more likely to result from evolution than perfect, stable green goo.
Hmm. I notice that I was not as specific as you are. I didn’t say anything about what “most” life forms would be like or whether there would be lots of smart life forms.
We may also have meant different things by “if life on earth evolved”. I read it as “conditional on self replicating things we could call ‘life’ emerged on earth, how would I expect things to proceed” where it could also have meant “conditional on intelligent life like we know it having been evolved, how would I expect that process to have gone”.
What I was intending to convey was not so much that one stable form of goo would remain permanently but rather that there is a significant component of the great filter in the stages between life emerging and general-intelligence evolving as well as the component before life emerges at all. I expect that most planets where life evolves at all to not evolve general intelligence or even other lifeforms as interesting as what we consider lesser animals. I expect it to get stuck in local minima rather frequently.
Hmm. I notice that I was not as specific as you are. I didn’t say anything about what “most” life forms would be like or whether there would be lots of smart life forms. I haven’t really done a thorough retrodiction on evolution, to tell the truth. But I am really liking this new imagination trick of “try to predict the past if the theory was true” (which is subtly different from my other tricks like “is there anything in the past that supports / refutes this?”) and it’s pleasant atheism-promoting effect on the remnants of my dead agnosticism phase. I’m glad I asked this question and that Gwern helped.
Thinking it out, I do not agree with your green goo hypothesis. I think that as long as there were mutations in the green goo’s pattern (and stability in this pattern would be the exception not the rule due to the complexity of making a self-replicating, self-incarnating pattern, and due to environmental differences more complex and diverse than the green goo’s pattern would be able to expect) and as long as there was always room for improvement (for something this complex that evolved randomly, perfection in the pattern would be the exception not the rule) it would have to change and mutate and new variations would inevitably emerge.
What would it take to have that kind of stability in life forms? Other than a perfectly stable planet? The life game is very, very complex.
I think, perhaps, a drastic reduction in the number of physical laws (when you have all kinds of neat toys to play with from electricity to friction, room for improvement is immense), as well as the number of substances available (otherwise the goo will only expand and encounter new things which promote adaptations), it MIGHT result in a simple life form becoming “perfect” for it’s environment and then stabilizing it’s genes as a way of optimizing perfection.
I think diversity and increasing improvement is more likely to result from evolution than perfect, stable green goo.
We may also have meant different things by “if life on earth evolved”. I read it as “conditional on self replicating things we could call ‘life’ emerged on earth, how would I expect things to proceed” where it could also have meant “conditional on intelligent life like we know it having been evolved, how would I expect that process to have gone”.
What I was intending to convey was not so much that one stable form of goo would remain permanently but rather that there is a significant component of the great filter in the stages between life emerging and general-intelligence evolving as well as the component before life emerges at all. I expect that most planets where life evolves at all to not evolve general intelligence or even other lifeforms as interesting as what we consider lesser animals. I expect it to get stuck in local minima rather frequently.