“Probability of appreciable rainfall” * “fraction of specified area which will receive it” is 0.7.
Or, I guess more properly it should be an integral over possible rainfall patterns. But “70% of London will definitely see lots of rain, and 30% will see none” and “we have 70% credence that all of London will see lots of rain, and 30% credence that no rain will fall in London” would both be reported as 70% chance of rain in London.
You just replaced the word probability with credence/chance without explaining what’s meant with it on a more basic level.
The people where you complain that they don’t know what probability means also won’t know what credence means.
I think then you evaded the question Lumifer asked. The original post stated I'd like to see people have a clue what a probability actually is. Then Lumifer asked what it actually is. Explaining weather forcasts is besides the main point.
Yes, I wasn’t answering the question as intended. But both kithpendragon and Lumifer were talking about the weather forecast, and it does seem at least vaguely relevant that even if you know exactly what probability is, that’s not sufficient to understand “70% chance of rain”.
“Probability of appreciable rainfall” * “fraction of specified area which will receive it” is 0.7.
Or, I guess more properly it should be an integral over possible rainfall patterns. But “70% of London will definitely see lots of rain, and 30% will see none” and “we have 70% credence that all of London will see lots of rain, and 30% credence that no rain will fall in London” would both be reported as 70% chance of rain in London.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation
And what does that mean?
You just replaced the word probability with credence/chance without explaining what’s meant with it on a more basic level. The people where you complain that they don’t know what probability means also won’t know what credence means.
I was talking about weather forecasts, not trying to explain probability.
I think then you evaded the question Lumifer asked. The original post stated
I'd like to see people have a clue what a probability actually is.Then Lumifer asked what it actually is. Explaining weather forcasts is besides the main point.Yes, I wasn’t answering the question as intended. But both kithpendragon and Lumifer were talking about the weather forecast, and it does seem at least vaguely relevant that even if you know exactly what probability is, that’s not sufficient to understand “70% chance of rain”.
Okay, I might have been to harsh.