I would give that 2-5% in this moment [...] Even when cornered yet further, I expect Putin to assess that firing off nukes will make his situation even worse.
Putin is old and losing the war and might go “fuck it, might as well take most of the world with me.” I feel like you’re not including in your analysis that some people are spiteful and hate losing.
Putin has at least two children, and he seems to care about them. For example, he gave one of his daughters Katerina Tikhonova several high-profile positions. According to the same source, Katerina reportedly gave him a grandchild.
Unless he is sure that his children will survive a nuclear apocalypse (which is unlikely), this could be a major factor for him.
From the character assessments I’ve read, I agree that it’s unlikely he wants to kamikaze himself or his family. However on the children point I would be careful not to over-index on that.
Putin is not “normal”. It’s very conceivable that he likes his children, but likes not losing control even more. If Putin loses the war badly and subsequently gets ousted, likelihood of death/imprisonment for him and his family is high. Hitler probably liked his wife, kids and dog, but when it came to the end game we all know how that went. I expect many such examples exist with similar characters driven by control-fetish, such as serial killers and the like.
Putting family members in office isn’t necessarily an indication of deep care or love. Trust is rare and valuable for Putin, and blood relatives come with instant trust points.
Upvoted because I think it’s a relevant consideration, just not enough to conclude much by itself.
Hitler probably liked his wife, kids and dog, but when it came to the end game we all know how that went.
Hitler never wanted kids and most historians say he didn’t have any although there are claims he had a son out of wedlock. (The claimed son survived WWII as did Hitler’s sister.) He did marry once -- 40 hours before committing suicide at the end of WWII.
Stalin married and had a kid, then his wife died of TB or typhus, then he married someone else and had more kids. He had control over nukes during the final 4 years of his rule, but never used them.
Can Putin actually fire Russian nuclear weapons unilateraly though? I don’t think a vote in the Russian parliament or anything is needed, but I suspect it takes more than just Putin by himself. (Maybe it needs the prime minister or head of the armed forces to also agree). Not knowing these exact processes is a big source of uncertainty in how this would turn out. Especially as the process-in-practice might deviate from the process-in-theory. (Eg. in theory Putin says fire, the head of Russian nuclear forces fires. In practice, Putin says fire, the head of Russian nuclear forces rings the Russian prime minister and says “so, like the president says .. but like .. what do you think...”
Formally, it needs to be approved by 3 people: the President, the Minister of Defence and the Chief of the General Staff. Then (I think) it doesn’t launch rockets. It unlocks them and sends a signal to other people to actually launch them.
Also, it is speculated to be some way to launch them without confirmation from all 3 people in case some of them cannot technically approve (e.g. briefcase doesn’t work/the person is dead/communication problems), but the details of how exactly it works are unknown.
If Putin says, fire it goes to the General Staff of the Armed Forces who are then supposed to carry out the orders. Putin’s orders do not directly go to the head of Russian nuclear forces.
In practice, I expect that the General Staff then needs to decide to either carry out the order or start a coup d’état.
If someone has a plan to overthrow Putin, but waits because it is too dangerous, the command to launch the nukes might be the very thing to convince them that not acting is even more dangerous.
(But this of course assumes that the person would learn about the command and have enough time to react, which is too optimistic. Unless they are already prepared for this, which assumes too much competence, which doesn’t exactly seem to be a frequent trait in Russia’s military.)
Another possibility is that the command is executed (meaning we are in the kaboom scenario), and the US does not escalate immediately but says that there will be a respond at a time and place of their choosing. This could give time for someone to overthrow Putin to prevent escalation.
My probability of Putin’s going “fuck it” is about 17 times lower than it would be if Putin didn’t have living children and grandchildren.
The part of the US government that decides the details of US economic sanctions believes that Putin’s relationships with his children is warm enough that substantial parts of his wealth might be held in their names.
Putin is old and losing the war and might go “fuck it, might as well take most of the world with me.” I feel like you’re not including in your analysis that some people are spiteful and hate losing.
Putin has at least two children, and he seems to care about them. For example, he gave one of his daughters Katerina Tikhonova several high-profile positions. According to the same source, Katerina reportedly gave him a grandchild.
Unless he is sure that his children will survive a nuclear apocalypse (which is unlikely), this could be a major factor for him.
From the character assessments I’ve read, I agree that it’s unlikely he wants to kamikaze himself or his family. However on the children point I would be careful not to over-index on that.
Putin is not “normal”. It’s very conceivable that he likes his children, but likes not losing control even more. If Putin loses the war badly and subsequently gets ousted, likelihood of death/imprisonment for him and his family is high. Hitler probably liked his wife, kids and dog, but when it came to the end game we all know how that went. I expect many such examples exist with similar characters driven by control-fetish, such as serial killers and the like.
Putting family members in office isn’t necessarily an indication of deep care or love. Trust is rare and valuable for Putin, and blood relatives come with instant trust points.
Upvoted because I think it’s a relevant consideration, just not enough to conclude much by itself.
Hitler never wanted kids and most historians say he didn’t have any although there are claims he had a son out of wedlock. (The claimed son survived WWII as did Hitler’s sister.) He did marry once -- 40 hours before committing suicide at the end of WWII.
Stalin married and had a kid, then his wife died of TB or typhus, then he married someone else and had more kids. He had control over nukes during the final 4 years of his rule, but never used them.
Can Putin actually fire Russian nuclear weapons unilateraly though? I don’t think a vote in the Russian parliament or anything is needed, but I suspect it takes more than just Putin by himself. (Maybe it needs the prime minister or head of the armed forces to also agree). Not knowing these exact processes is a big source of uncertainty in how this would turn out. Especially as the process-in-practice might deviate from the process-in-theory. (Eg. in theory Putin says fire, the head of Russian nuclear forces fires. In practice, Putin says fire, the head of Russian nuclear forces rings the Russian prime minister and says “so, like the president says .. but like .. what do you think...”
Formally, it needs to be approved by 3 people: the President, the Minister of Defence and the Chief of the General Staff. Then (I think) it doesn’t launch rockets. It unlocks them and sends a signal to other people to actually launch them.
Also, it is speculated to be some way to launch them without confirmation from all 3 people in case some of them cannot technically approve (e.g. briefcase doesn’t work/the person is dead/communication problems), but the details of how exactly it works are unknown.
If Putin says, fire it goes to the General Staff of the Armed Forces who are then supposed to carry out the orders. Putin’s orders do not directly go to the head of Russian nuclear forces.
In practice, I expect that the General Staff then needs to decide to either carry out the order or start a coup d’état.
If someone has a plan to overthrow Putin, but waits because it is too dangerous, the command to launch the nukes might be the very thing to convince them that not acting is even more dangerous.
(But this of course assumes that the person would learn about the command and have enough time to react, which is too optimistic. Unless they are already prepared for this, which assumes too much competence, which doesn’t exactly seem to be a frequent trait in Russia’s military.)
Another possibility is that the command is executed (meaning we are in the kaboom scenario), and the US does not escalate immediately but says that there will be a respond at a time and place of their choosing. This could give time for someone to overthrow Putin to prevent escalation.
My probability of Putin’s going “fuck it” is about 17 times lower than it would be if Putin didn’t have living children and grandchildren.
The part of the US government that decides the details of US economic sanctions believes that Putin’s relationships with his children is warm enough that substantial parts of his wealth might be held in their names.
Yes, that’s most of the 2-5%.