My point is that a forecaster can have the level of precision where they say 50% is much too low and 80% is much too high. I agree that 50% vs 80% only makes a 1.6x difference in the final number, which is fairly small when you and Tegmark differ by 30x.
If you think it’s higher than 50% but lower than 80%, it seems like there isn’t much room there to me?
50% vs 80% is a huge difference, 4x in odds terms.
Not for the purposes of Tegmark’s calculation. Did you check how he uses this number?
My point is that a forecaster can have the level of precision where they say 50% is much too low and 80% is much too high. I agree that 50% vs 80% only makes a 1.6x difference in the final number, which is fairly small when you and Tegmark differ by 30x.
I agree with this, but for the reason you specified I think that precision would be of greater utility elsewhere.