Surprised at that level of risk aversion. I would definitely take the bet given the “pure” thought experiment, though in reality the odds would be a lot lower given the probability that some information would have leaked by day 9, or e.g. the different possibilities listed by Dagon.
His level of risk aversion is absurd and likely not maintained in other situations leading to not transitive preferences. Or more realistically he’s just bad at intuitively thinking about numbers so he can’t give meaningful answers.
Surprised at that level of risk aversion. I would definitely take the bet given the “pure” thought experiment, though in reality the odds would be a lot lower given the probability that some information would have leaked by day 9, or e.g. the different possibilities listed by Dagon.
His level of risk aversion is absurd and likely not maintained in other situations leading to not transitive preferences. Or more realistically he’s just bad at intuitively thinking about numbers so he can’t give meaningful answers.