Hey Tamay, nice meeting you at The Curve. Just saw your comment here today.
Things we could potentially bet on: - rate of GDP growth by 2027 / 2030 / 2040 - rate of energy consumption growth by 2027 / 2030 / 2040 - rate of chip production by 2027 / 2030 / 2040 - rates of unemployment (though confounded)
Any others you’re interested in? Degree of regulation feels like a tricky one to quantify.
How about AI company and hardware company valuations? (Maybe in 2026, 2027, 2030 or similar.)
Or what about benchmark/task performance? Is there any benchmark/task you think won’t get beaten in the next few years? (And, ideally, if it did get beaten, you would change you mind.) Maybe “AI won’t be able to autonomously write good ML research papers (as judged by (e.g.) not having notably more errors than human written papers and getting into NeurIPS with good reviews)”? Could do “make large PRs to open source repos that are considered highly valuable” or “make open source repos that are widely used”.
These might be a bit better to bet on as they could be leading indicators
(It’s still the case that betting on the side of fast AI progress might be financially worse than just trying to invest or taking out a loan, but it could be easier to bet than to invest in e.g. OpenAI. Regardless, part of the point of betting is clearly demonstrating a view.)
I’m interested. What bets would you offer?
Hey Tamay, nice meeting you at The Curve. Just saw your comment here today.
Things we could potentially bet on:
- rate of GDP growth by 2027 / 2030 / 2040
- rate of energy consumption growth by 2027 / 2030 / 2040
- rate of chip production by 2027 / 2030 / 2040
- rates of unemployment (though confounded)
Any others you’re interested in? Degree of regulation feels like a tricky one to quantify.
How about AI company and hardware company valuations? (Maybe in 2026, 2027, 2030 or similar.)
Or what about benchmark/task performance? Is there any benchmark/task you think won’t get beaten in the next few years? (And, ideally, if it did get beaten, you would change you mind.) Maybe “AI won’t be able to autonomously write good ML research papers (as judged by (e.g.) not having notably more errors than human written papers and getting into NeurIPS with good reviews)”? Could do “make large PRs to open source repos that are considered highly valuable” or “make open source repos that are widely used”.
These might be a bit better to bet on as they could be leading indicators
(It’s still the case that betting on the side of fast AI progress might be financially worse than just trying to invest or taking out a loan, but it could be easier to bet than to invest in e.g. OpenAI. Regardless, part of the point of betting is clearly demonstrating a view.)