It doesn’t matter hugely whether hospitals are overloaded by 3-5x for a long time or 20x for a relatively short time. In the former about 75% of people are unable to get treatment, in the latter 95%. 3-5x is better but isn’t as much better as it might seem.
The UK government has claimed that hygiene/social distancing can flatten the curve by 20% but 20% doesn’t make much difference unless you happen to be just over capacity beforehand.
Oh, yeah don’t know how the differences would play out down stream in the model or in real life. Just thought it was worth pointing out since 3-5x vs 20x+ is very large and thus it’s worth investigating the model to see what’s causing that difference.
The Ferguson et al paper on page 8 shows a lot more than a 3x to 5x hospital overcapacity. It’s something like 30x for uncontrolled and 10x for their maximum mitigation plan.
Joscha’s article seems to overcorrect in the other direction. Messing with ad hoc models I get a mitigated peak 3-5x hospital capacity, not 20x+.
It doesn’t matter hugely whether hospitals are overloaded by 3-5x for a long time or 20x for a relatively short time. In the former about 75% of people are unable to get treatment, in the latter 95%. 3-5x is better but isn’t as much better as it might seem.
The UK government has claimed that hygiene/social distancing can flatten the curve by 20% but 20% doesn’t make much difference unless you happen to be just over capacity beforehand.
Oh, yeah don’t know how the differences would play out down stream in the model or in real life. Just thought it was worth pointing out since 3-5x vs 20x+ is very large and thus it’s worth investigating the model to see what’s causing that difference.
The Ferguson et al paper on page 8 shows a lot more than a 3x to 5x hospital overcapacity. It’s something like 30x for uncontrolled and 10x for their maximum mitigation plan.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
If this is true then we should see another spike in Hubei as they lift restrictions right?
No, because the Chinese are being smart and driving the disease to 0. That’s whey they dismantled their temporary hospitals.