The Ferguson et al paper on page 8 shows a lot more than a 3x to 5x hospital overcapacity. It’s something like 30x for uncontrolled and 10x for their maximum mitigation plan.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
If this is true then we should see another spike in Hubei as they lift restrictions right?
No, because the Chinese are being smart and driving the disease to 0. That’s whey they dismantled their temporary hospitals.
The Ferguson et al paper on page 8 shows a lot more than a 3x to 5x hospital overcapacity. It’s something like 30x for uncontrolled and 10x for their maximum mitigation plan.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
If this is true then we should see another spike in Hubei as they lift restrictions right?
No, because the Chinese are being smart and driving the disease to 0. That’s whey they dismantled their temporary hospitals.