Probably not. Consider why there was an increasing amount of dissatisfaction among the people, after all the Tsars had always been brutal, it was only when the Tsar was less brutal that dissatisfaction seemed to manifest.
The main problem with that argument is that it assumes dissatisfaction is determined by the amount of repression. It’s a factor, but there are others, like food, wars, and technical innovations.
This kind of question needs complex analysis and can’t be answered that easily. You could plot a measurement of repression against a measure of dissatisfaction (assume the measurements are accurate), show that they corresponded perfectly from regime to regime, and even if you ignore confounders it still wouldn’t show causality because you still wouldn’t know which one came first.
The main problem with that argument is that it assumes dissatisfaction is determined by the amount of repression. It’s a factor, but there are others, like food, wars, and technical innovations.
That’s sort of my point. That repression done right doesn’t cause rebellions.
show that they corresponded perfectly from regime to regime, and even if you ignore confounders it still wouldn’t show causality because you still wouldn’t know which one came first.
Well for starters if you look at them chronologically, you can see which one actually changed first.
When people say “fascism” they’re usually actually thinking of Nazism. Now, what was Nazism? It was a movement that stressed the need for intense loyalty to a strong Fatherland, that worried about pollution of that Fatherland by inferior races, that was contemptuous of democracy, that appealed to the glorious cultural traditions of the Fatherland, that lamented that the political Left was treacherously weakening the nation, that held that women should stick to traditional gender roles, that made much of the value of traditional religion without actually embracing it and being religious …
Gosh, it’s hard to see what possible motive a neoreactionary could have for making light of the idea that anything like that might still be around today.
NRx people should know the difference between fascism and nazism, given how they pay great attention to history.
But there also might be a bit of miscommunication. I suspect VoiceOfRa thinks about far-right parties in Europe which are often tagged with the neo-Nazi label. That wasn’t what I actually had I mind. I was thinking of people like Mr.Putin.
Calling someone a fascist nowadays is just an insult, there is rarely much meaning behind it.
But you might think about important elements of fascism, the ones that distinguish it from, say, liberal democracies or communist countries or even just plain-vanilla dictatorships, and check how current Russia compares...
So you admit your definition of “fascism” is time dependent? So why is this definition useful, are you saying that the laws of nature (or at least human nature) aren’t uniform across time?
So you admit your definition of “fascism” is time dependent?
One element of fascism is a desire to restore (alleged) past glories.
(I am not in fact convinced that “nearly everyone before the 19th century” has the characteristics I described. Some of them don’t even make much sense before the 19th century; e.g., the sort of leftism Hitler worried about, or the sort neoreactionaries worry about, didn’t exist in that form before the 19th century. But that’s a separate argument, and for now I’m happy to stick with this one.)
So why is this definition useful
I don’t understand the “So”. Lots of time-dependent things are useful.
What someone’s opinions tell you about that person depends on the context they’re in. Suppose I tell you someone believes that the earth is at the centre of the universe, and ask you for a probability distribution on their IQ. Then I ask you the same about someone 1000 years ago. You may very well give different answers. Suppose I tell you someone thinks democracy is a terrible idea. Again, any guesses you might make about their character or about other things they believe may be different depending on whether they’re in present-day England or present-day North Korea or revolutionary France or Periclean Athens.
are you saying the laws of nature (or at least human nature) aren’t uniform across time?
Depends on what you count as a law of human nature, and what timescale you’re interested in. Human biology probably doesn’t change much on (merely) historical timescales, but human societies certainly do and human brains are pretty malleable. Human biology probably does change enough to matter on, say, 20k-year timescales, and maybe there are places and times when it changes much faster (e.g., consider the debatable but not obviously crazy suggestion that Ashkenazy Jews are exceptionally smart but extra-susceptible to various interesting diseases because of strong selection for intelligence over the last millennium or three).
the sort of leftism Hitler worried about, or the sort neoreactionaries worry about, didn’t exist in that form before the 19th century.
So you’re arguing not wanting to live under a leftist totalitarian dictatorship with an economy based on a delusional economic theory makes one a fascist?
Sorry, I’m not interested in having a discussion with someone who both (1) wilfully misinterprets what I say, hence requiring lots of clarifications in order to get anywhere, and also (2) downvotes everything I write. Let me know when you’re prepared to be reasonable and we can try again.
(In the unlikely event that you really truly sincerely think that your question was a reasonable one whose answer ought to be yes given what I’d written, I think it follows that at least one of us is too stupid to be worth engaging with even without your abusive behaviour.)
Human biology probably doesn’t change much on (merely) historical timescales, but human societies certainly do and human brains are pretty malleable.
Except we’re talking about human political philosophies, not individual people. Thus it makes no sense to consider political philosophies and societies as extrinsic to our model.
I am not arguing that everything backward-looking is bad because Hitler was bad. (Though, actually, most of us would do well to eat less sugar.)
For that matter, in this thread I haven’t been arguing even that Nazism is bad, though as it happens I’m not a fan. Merely observing that there’s a considerable overlap between the backward-looking things neoreactionaries advocate and the backward-looking things the Nazis were keen on.
And, as it happens, I am quite comfortable saying that in many respects “nearly everyone before the 19th century” had views and attitudes that I dislike and disapprove of; if I make a list of Things I Dislike About Nazism and it turns out that they’re mostly also things I dislike about the fifteenth century, my conclusion will be “so much the worse for the fifteenth century”. I already know I wouldn’t want to live there; I already know that “nearly everyone” in the past was wrong about huge swathes of how-the-world-works stuff that we’ve discovered since; why should I be discomfited to find their values also meeting with my disapproval?
(One possible reason: “That would imply that almost everyone until recently was a Bad Person, but that lots of people now are not Bad People, which would mean a bigger faster change in human nature than is plausible.” But people’s values aren’t in fact mere manifestations of their genes, they also come from the surrounding society, and societies can change quickly. It could be that most people would be (what I would consider) Bad if brought up in one society and (what I would consider) Not So Bad if brought up in a different one.)
it makes no sense to consider political philosophies and societies as extrinsic to our model.
My apologies for being dim, but I’m not sure what it is you think I’m doing that I shouldn’t. What model am I treating what as extrinsic to?
OK, I looked at that. I’m afraid doing so hasn’t answered my question.
(It may be worth saying explicitly, though, that my comments here aren’t intended to address the question of whether bombing the hell out of Nazi Germany was an effective way of getting rid of Nazism in Germany, or the possibly-analogous question of whether bombing the hell out of ISIS-occupied Syria would be an effective way of getting rid of fundamentalist Islamic terrorist dictatorship in Syria, or the higher-level question of whether and to what extent you can get rid of ideas with bombs. I think I kinda agree with you about the first, am inclined to disagree about the second but would need to see some more joined-up thinking on the subject than seems generally to be on offer before forming strong opinions, and suspect the third is too vague to be able to say anything useful about.)
I know what the outcome of WW2 was but not what the outcome of bombing or invading Syria will be. WW2 was a huge affair in which several major nations expended pretty much all the effort they could to beat the Axis powers; it is vanishingly unlikely that anything like as much will be done to ISIS. There wasn’t a great deal of sympathy for Nazism in the rest of the world, but there’s plenty of Islamic fundamentalism outside ISIS.
There wasn’t a great deal of sympathy for Nazism in the rest of the world
In the 1930s, yes there was. There wasn’t much by 1945, but that was because people saw what happened to the Nazis and were basically going “despite appearances to the contrary, we never really liked the Nazis we swear, please don’t do that to us”.
IIRC ethnic nationalism wasn’t even much of a thing until around 1800, and I doubt many people “lamented that the political Left was treacherously weakening the nation” a few centuries ago.
That hardly counts as stressing the need for intense loyalty to a strong Fatherland (before Zionism became widespread) or worrying about pollution of that Fatherland by inferior races (?).
A Jewish woman is prohibited from marrying a non-Jew (that’s why Jewishness is determined matrilineally), but in any case I’m objecting to “ethnic nationalism wasn’t even much of a thing”. It most certainly was.
Most instances of fascism were somewhat closer to being “a particular ethnic group” than ISIS is, and anyway he said “notoriously hard”, not “impossible”, and the defeat of fascism was not exactly painless and effortless.
What’s the problem? Repression done right just means that a particular political system/approach/technique produces the desired results without the costs (including secondary effects and externalities) being too high. Moral outrage is not a particularly useful analysis tool.
Just like the best war is the one your enemy has lost before even realizing he’s at war, the best repression is the one where the repressed population believes itself to be happy and in control :-/
My point was that “right” is a problematic term in this case. Using less loaded terms, you’re describing “effective” or “successful” repression.
So, back to the original argument:
VoiceOfRa claims that [effective] repression doesn’t cause rebellions. You seem to agree with me that it’s mostly because the dead don’t complain. Indeed, it’s not very effective; if removing dissenters is your solution to everything, you’ll end up a lonely tyrant.
“done right” is a sufficiently neutral expression often used in engineering context, I don’t read moral overtones here.
[effective] repression doesn’t cause rebellions
That’s just a tautology.
it’s mostly because the dead don’t complain
Not necessarily “mostly”, but historically it has been a very popular way for a “successful” repression. It’s a bit more difficult to pull off nowadays, though.
it’s not very effective
It depends on who you are repressing—e.g. if it’s an (ethnic, religious, cultural) minority, killing them all is very effective.
Because traditionally you kill the males and enslave the women, you can empirically find defeated populations in the genetic code of the descendants of the winners: they would have some matrilinear admixture, but none (or almost none) of the patrilinear admixture of the losers.
This allows you to find empirical examples of ethnic groups that were successfully repressed by killing all the males—even if you don’t have e.g. literary sources. This has bearings on how popular and how successful repressions by kill-them-all methods were.
If we Latinos are mainly descended from male Spaniards and female Natives, and still we fought wars to kick the Spanish out, what does it indicate, according to your thesis?
I don’t have a thesis, just a few comments. I think that it’s very possible to have a successful (from the repressor’s point of view) repression and that historically one of the main ways it has been achieved was by making the repressed dead and broken.
and still we fought wars to kick the Spanish out, what does it indicate
That indicates that local elites desire wealth and power, often more than the metropoly is willing to let them have.
Causality could go the other way here—the reforms might have been (ultimately ineffective) attempts to address dissatisfaction among the people.
Probably not. Consider why there was an increasing amount of dissatisfaction among the people, after all the Tsars had always been brutal, it was only when the Tsar was less brutal that dissatisfaction seemed to manifest.
The main problem with that argument is that it assumes dissatisfaction is determined by the amount of repression. It’s a factor, but there are others, like food, wars, and technical innovations.
This kind of question needs complex analysis and can’t be answered that easily. You could plot a measurement of repression against a measure of dissatisfaction (assume the measurements are accurate), show that they corresponded perfectly from regime to regime, and even if you ignore confounders it still wouldn’t show causality because you still wouldn’t know which one came first.
That’s sort of my point. That repression done right doesn’t cause rebellions.
Well for starters if you look at them chronologically, you can see which one actually changed first.
LOL. The dead and the broken don’t rebel much...
Good, now analyse what you mean by “broken” and we’re getting somewhere.
In this context “broken” = “internalised the slave mentality”.
So would you say the Germans and Japanese internalised the slave mentality after WWII?
No, I would not classify Germany and Japan post-WW2 as “dead and broken”.
Temporary occupation by a foreign power is something a bit different, anyway.
Well, since the OP was about how to deal with ISIS, “breaking” them in the sense that Germany and Japan were seems to be a desirable result.
ISIS is an idea. It’s not a particular ethnic group or population of a particular piece of land. Ideas are notoriously hard to repress successfully.
So was fascism.
And do you imagine it disappeared..?
Not completely, but sure it is a few orders of magnitude less prevalent than if the Allies hadn’t defeated the Axis in WW2, isn’t it?
Except as a useful boogeyman for those currently in power, yes.
You’re kidding yourself.
Or trying to kid others.
When people say “fascism” they’re usually actually thinking of Nazism. Now, what was Nazism? It was a movement that stressed the need for intense loyalty to a strong Fatherland, that worried about pollution of that Fatherland by inferior races, that was contemptuous of democracy, that appealed to the glorious cultural traditions of the Fatherland, that lamented that the political Left was treacherously weakening the nation, that held that women should stick to traditional gender roles, that made much of the value of traditional religion without actually embracing it and being religious …
Gosh, it’s hard to see what possible motive a neoreactionary could have for making light of the idea that anything like that might still be around today.
NRx people should know the difference between fascism and nazism, given how they pay great attention to history.
But there also might be a bit of miscommunication. I suspect VoiceOfRa thinks about far-right parties in Europe which are often tagged with the neo-Nazi label. That wasn’t what I actually had I mind. I was thinking of people like Mr.Putin.
And you think it’s reasonable to call him “fascist”?
Calling someone a fascist nowadays is just an insult, there is rarely much meaning behind it.
But you might think about important elements of fascism, the ones that distinguish it from, say, liberal democracies or communist countries or even just plain-vanilla dictatorships, and check how current Russia compares...
So by your definition nearly everyone before the 19th century was a “fascist”?
Only in the same way as everyone in mediaeval times was a reenactment enthusiast.
So you admit your definition of “fascism” is time dependent? So why is this definition useful, are you saying that the laws of nature (or at least human nature) aren’t uniform across time?
One element of fascism is a desire to restore (alleged) past glories.
(I am not in fact convinced that “nearly everyone before the 19th century” has the characteristics I described. Some of them don’t even make much sense before the 19th century; e.g., the sort of leftism Hitler worried about, or the sort neoreactionaries worry about, didn’t exist in that form before the 19th century. But that’s a separate argument, and for now I’m happy to stick with this one.)
I don’t understand the “So”. Lots of time-dependent things are useful.
What someone’s opinions tell you about that person depends on the context they’re in. Suppose I tell you someone believes that the earth is at the centre of the universe, and ask you for a probability distribution on their IQ. Then I ask you the same about someone 1000 years ago. You may very well give different answers. Suppose I tell you someone thinks democracy is a terrible idea. Again, any guesses you might make about their character or about other things they believe may be different depending on whether they’re in present-day England or present-day North Korea or revolutionary France or Periclean Athens.
Depends on what you count as a law of human nature, and what timescale you’re interested in. Human biology probably doesn’t change much on (merely) historical timescales, but human societies certainly do and human brains are pretty malleable. Human biology probably does change enough to matter on, say, 20k-year timescales, and maybe there are places and times when it changes much faster (e.g., consider the debatable but not obviously crazy suggestion that Ashkenazy Jews are exceptionally smart but extra-susceptible to various interesting diseases because of strong selection for intelligence over the last millennium or three).
So you’re arguing not wanting to live under a leftist totalitarian dictatorship with an economy based on a delusional economic theory makes one a fascist?
No.
Then what were you trying to say when you wrote that clause?
Sorry, I’m not interested in having a discussion with someone who both (1) wilfully misinterprets what I say, hence requiring lots of clarifications in order to get anywhere, and also (2) downvotes everything I write. Let me know when you’re prepared to be reasonable and we can try again.
(In the unlikely event that you really truly sincerely think that your question was a reasonable one whose answer ought to be yes given what I’d written, I think it follows that at least one of us is too stupid to be worth engaging with even without your abusive behaviour.)
I see you’re a fan of the “say something outrageous and when called on it get angry and claim to have said something different” school of debate.
Yes, and Hitler ate sugar.
Except we’re talking about human political philosophies, not individual people. Thus it makes no sense to consider political philosophies and societies as extrinsic to our model.
I am not arguing that everything backward-looking is bad because Hitler was bad. (Though, actually, most of us would do well to eat less sugar.)
For that matter, in this thread I haven’t been arguing even that Nazism is bad, though as it happens I’m not a fan. Merely observing that there’s a considerable overlap between the backward-looking things neoreactionaries advocate and the backward-looking things the Nazis were keen on.
And, as it happens, I am quite comfortable saying that in many respects “nearly everyone before the 19th century” had views and attitudes that I dislike and disapprove of; if I make a list of Things I Dislike About Nazism and it turns out that they’re mostly also things I dislike about the fifteenth century, my conclusion will be “so much the worse for the fifteenth century”. I already know I wouldn’t want to live there; I already know that “nearly everyone” in the past was wrong about huge swathes of how-the-world-works stuff that we’ve discovered since; why should I be discomfited to find their values also meeting with my disapproval?
(One possible reason: “That would imply that almost everyone until recently was a Bad Person, but that lots of people now are not Bad People, which would mean a bigger faster change in human nature than is plausible.” But people’s values aren’t in fact mere manifestations of their genes, they also come from the surrounding society, and societies can change quickly. It could be that most people would be (what I would consider) Bad if brought up in one society and (what I would consider) Not So Bad if brought up in a different one.)
My apologies for being dim, but I’m not sure what it is you think I’m doing that I shouldn’t. What model am I treating what as extrinsic to?
You may want to look at how this thread started.
OK, I looked at that. I’m afraid doing so hasn’t answered my question.
(It may be worth saying explicitly, though, that my comments here aren’t intended to address the question of whether bombing the hell out of Nazi Germany was an effective way of getting rid of Nazism in Germany, or the possibly-analogous question of whether bombing the hell out of ISIS-occupied Syria would be an effective way of getting rid of fundamentalist Islamic terrorist dictatorship in Syria, or the higher-level question of whether and to what extent you can get rid of ideas with bombs. I think I kinda agree with you about the first, am inclined to disagree about the second but would need to see some more joined-up thinking on the subject than seems generally to be on offer before forming strong opinions, and suspect the third is too vague to be able to say anything useful about.)
I never said one could get rid of an idea with bombs. Bombs + boots on the ground, on the other hand.
Why the difference? This sounds like a classic near mode/far mode thinking split.
Even if you kill all of ISIS that won’t destroy fundamentalist Islam. There are enough other sources of that in the middle East.
I know what the outcome of WW2 was but not what the outcome of bombing or invading Syria will be. WW2 was a huge affair in which several major nations expended pretty much all the effort they could to beat the Axis powers; it is vanishingly unlikely that anything like as much will be done to ISIS. There wasn’t a great deal of sympathy for Nazism in the rest of the world, but there’s plenty of Islamic fundamentalism outside ISIS.
In the 1930s, yes there was. There wasn’t much by 1945, but that was because people saw what happened to the Nazis and were basically going “despite appearances to the contrary, we never really liked the Nazis we swear, please don’t do that to us”.
IIRC ethnic nationalism wasn’t even much of a thing until around 1800, and I doubt many people “lamented that the political Left was treacherously weakening the nation” a few centuries ago.
*cough*Old Testament*cough*
That hardly counts as stressing the need for intense loyalty to a strong Fatherland (before Zionism became widespread) or worrying about pollution of that Fatherland by inferior races (?).
A Jewish woman is prohibited from marrying a non-Jew (that’s why Jewishness is determined matrilineally), but in any case I’m objecting to “ethnic nationalism wasn’t even much of a thing”. It most certainly was.
Most instances of fascism were somewhat closer to being “a particular ethnic group” than ISIS is, and anyway he said “notoriously hard”, not “impossible”, and the defeat of fascism was not exactly painless and effortless.
And attempting to avoid offending them, as Gleb is arguing for, was obviously counterproductive in retrospect.
How is there such a thing as “repression done right”?
What’s the problem? Repression done right just means that a particular political system/approach/technique produces the desired results without the costs (including secondary effects and externalities) being too high. Moral outrage is not a particularly useful analysis tool.
Just like the best war is the one your enemy has lost before even realizing he’s at war, the best repression is the one where the repressed population believes itself to be happy and in control :-/
My point was that “right” is a problematic term in this case. Using less loaded terms, you’re describing “effective” or “successful” repression.
So, back to the original argument:
VoiceOfRa claims that [effective] repression doesn’t cause rebellions. You seem to agree with me that it’s mostly because the dead don’t complain. Indeed, it’s not very effective; if removing dissenters is your solution to everything, you’ll end up a lonely tyrant.
“done right” is a sufficiently neutral expression often used in engineering context, I don’t read moral overtones here.
That’s just a tautology.
Not necessarily “mostly”, but historically it has been a very popular way for a “successful” repression. It’s a bit more difficult to pull off nowadays, though.
It depends on who you are repressing—e.g. if it’s an (ethnic, religious, cultural) minority, killing them all is very effective.
Because traditionally you kill the males and enslave the women, you can empirically find defeated populations in the genetic code of the descendants of the winners: they would have some matrilinear admixture, but none (or almost none) of the patrilinear admixture of the losers.
You lost me there. Why is that relevant?
This allows you to find empirical examples of ethnic groups that were successfully repressed by killing all the males—even if you don’t have e.g. literary sources. This has bearings on how popular and how successful repressions by kill-them-all methods were.
If we Latinos are mainly descended from male Spaniards and female Natives, and still we fought wars to kick the Spanish out, what does it indicate, according to your thesis?
I don’t have a thesis, just a few comments. I think that it’s very possible to have a successful (from the repressor’s point of view) repression and that historically one of the main ways it has been achieved was by making the repressed dead and broken.
That indicates that local elites desire wealth and power, often more than the metropoly is willing to let them have.
No, Lumifer said that the dead and broken don’t complain.
History does not agree with you there.