Actually, I was previously assuming that people are diagnosed the day they develop symptoms, which is probably an unrealistic expectation. If I add a term for that, and assume that there’s a 5 day lag, my numbers jump up again:
Upper bound: 17,100
Lower bound: 585
Actually, I was previously assuming that people are diagnosed the day they develop symptoms, which is probably an unrealistic expectation. If I add a term for that, and assume that there’s a 5 day lag, my numbers jump up again:
Upper bound: 17,100
Lower bound: 585