Alright, when I change the incubation time to 5 days, and correct a formula error, I get the following:
Upper bound (assuming a 3.5 day doubling time and a 5% confirmation rate): 6,837 infected persons.
Lower bound (assuming a 7 day doubling time and a 70% confirmation rate): 384 infected persons.
...which are a lot closer to your estimates.
Actually, I was previously assuming that people are diagnosed the day they develop symptoms, which is probably an unrealistic expectation. If I add a term for that, and assume that there’s a 5 day lag, my numbers jump up again:
Upper bound: 17,100
Lower bound: 585
Alright, when I change the incubation time to 5 days, and correct a formula error, I get the following:
Upper bound (assuming a 3.5 day doubling time and a 5% confirmation rate): 6,837 infected persons.
Lower bound (assuming a 7 day doubling time and a 70% confirmation rate): 384 infected persons.
...which are a lot closer to your estimates.
Actually, I was previously assuming that people are diagnosed the day they develop symptoms, which is probably an unrealistic expectation. If I add a term for that, and assume that there’s a 5 day lag, my numbers jump up again:
Upper bound: 17,100
Lower bound: 585