My intuition is people should actually bet on current anthropic reasoning less than they do. The reason is it is dangerously simple to construct simple examples with some small integer number of universes. I believe there is a significant chance these actually do not generalize to the real system in some non-obvious way.
One of the more specific reasons why I have this intuition is, it is actually quite hard to do any sort of “counting” of observers even in the very non-speculative world of quantum mechanics. When you go more in the direction of Tegmark’s mathematical universe, I would expect the problem to get harder.
My intuition is people should actually bet on current anthropic reasoning less than they do. The reason is it is dangerously simple to construct simple examples with some small integer number of universes. I believe there is a significant chance these actually do not generalize to the real system in some non-obvious way.
One of the more specific reasons why I have this intuition is, it is actually quite hard to do any sort of “counting” of observers even in the very non-speculative world of quantum mechanics. When you go more in the direction of Tegmark’s mathematical universe, I would expect the problem to get harder.