Well, now you’ve changed what you’re arguing for. You initially said that it doesn’t matter which way predictions are stated, and then you said that both lists are the same.
I hereby offer you 2000$ if you provide me with a list of this kind
Can you specify what you mean by ‘of this kind’, i.e. what are the criteria for predictions included on the list? Do you mean a series of predictions which give a narrow range?
Ok this confirms you haven’t understood what I’m claiming. If I gave a list of predictions that were my true 50% confidence interval, they would look very similar to common wisdom because I’m not a superforecaster (unless I had private information about a topic, e.g. a prediction on my net worth at the end of the year or something). If I gave my true 50% confidence interval, I would be indifferent to which way I phrased it (in the same way that if I was to predict 10 coin tosses it doesn’t matter whether I predict ten heads, ten tails, or some mix of the two).
From what I can tell from your examples, the list of predictions you proposed sending to me would not have represented your true 50% confidence intervals each time—you could have sent me 5 things you are very confident will come true and 5 things you are very confident won’t come true. It’s possible to fake any given level of calibration in this way.
Thanks I appreciate that :) And I apologize if my comment about probability being weird came across as patronizing, it was meant to be a reflection on the difficulty I was having putting my model into words, not a comment on your understanding
Ok this confirms you haven’t understood what I’m claiming.
I’m arguing against this claim:
I don’t think there is any difference in those lists!
I’m saying that it is harder to make a list where all predictions seem obviously false and have half of them come true than it is to make a list where half of all predictions seem obviously false and half seem obviously true and have half of them come true. That’s the only thing I’m claiming is true. I know you’ve said other things and I haven’t addressed them; that’s because I wanted to get consensus on this thing before talking about anything else.
Well, now you’ve changed what you’re arguing for. You initially said that it doesn’t matter which way predictions are stated, and then you said that both lists are the same.
Can you specify what you mean by ‘of this kind’, i.e. what are the criteria for predictions included on the list? Do you mean a series of predictions which give a narrow range?
A list of predictions that all seem extremely unlikely to come true according to common wisdom.
Ok this confirms you haven’t understood what I’m claiming. If I gave a list of predictions that were my true 50% confidence interval, they would look very similar to common wisdom because I’m not a superforecaster (unless I had private information about a topic, e.g. a prediction on my net worth at the end of the year or something). If I gave my true 50% confidence interval, I would be indifferent to which way I phrased it (in the same way that if I was to predict 10 coin tosses it doesn’t matter whether I predict ten heads, ten tails, or some mix of the two).
From what I can tell from your examples, the list of predictions you proposed sending to me would not have represented your true 50% confidence intervals each time—you could have sent me 5 things you are very confident will come true and 5 things you are very confident won’t come true. It’s possible to fake any given level of calibration in this way.
Also, I apologize for the statement that I “understand you perfectly” a few posts back. It was stupid and I’ve edited it out.
Thanks I appreciate that :) And I apologize if my comment about probability being weird came across as patronizing, it was meant to be a reflection on the difficulty I was having putting my model into words, not a comment on your understanding
I’m arguing against this claim:
I’m saying that it is harder to make a list where all predictions seem obviously false and have half of them come true than it is to make a list where half of all predictions seem obviously false and half seem obviously true and have half of them come true. That’s the only thing I’m claiming is true. I know you’ve said other things and I haven’t addressed them; that’s because I wanted to get consensus on this thing before talking about anything else.