Ok this confirms you haven’t understood what I’m claiming.
I’m arguing against this claim:
I don’t think there is any difference in those lists!
I’m saying that it is harder to make a list where all predictions seem obviously false and have half of them come true than it is to make a list where half of all predictions seem obviously false and half seem obviously true and have half of them come true. That’s the only thing I’m claiming is true. I know you’ve said other things and I haven’t addressed them; that’s because I wanted to get consensus on this thing before talking about anything else.
I’m arguing against this claim:
I’m saying that it is harder to make a list where all predictions seem obviously false and have half of them come true than it is to make a list where half of all predictions seem obviously false and half seem obviously true and have half of them come true. That’s the only thing I’m claiming is true. I know you’ve said other things and I haven’t addressed them; that’s because I wanted to get consensus on this thing before talking about anything else.