For training new graduates from computer science major, I often asked them to develop a simple website to predict the UP/DOWN probability of tomorrow’s SP index (close price), by using any machine learning model.
Then, if the website reported a number that was very close 50%, I would say: the website worked well since the SP index was very close to random walk.
“What is the meaning of the work!” Most of them would ask angrily.
“50% visitors will be impressed by your website. “
I apologize if you feel the story is irrelevant.
In my opinion, 50% prediction definitely is meaningful in many cases. It depends on the audience’s background. For example, if your model tell people, the probability of the disappearing of COVID-19 in tomorrow is 50%, we will be more than happy.
For training new graduates from computer science major, I often asked them to develop a simple website to predict the UP/DOWN probability of tomorrow’s SP index (close price), by using any machine learning model. Then, if the website reported a number that was very close 50%, I would say: the website worked well since the SP index was very close to random walk. “What is the meaning of the work!” Most of them would ask angrily. “50% visitors will be impressed by your website. “
I apologize if you feel the story is irrelevant. In my opinion, 50% prediction definitely is meaningful in many cases. It depends on the audience’s background. For example, if your model tell people, the probability of the disappearing of COVID-19 in tomorrow is 50%, we will be more than happy.