On the one hand, Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a ~30% chance of winning in Virginia, making my side of the bet look good again.
On the other hand, the Economist model gives Trump a 10% chance of winning Delaware and a 20% chance of winning Illinois, which suggests that there’s something going wrong with the model and that it was untrustworthy a month ago.
That said, betting markets currently think there’s only a one in four chance that Biden is the nominee, so this bet probably won’t resolve.
Looks like this bet is voided. My take is roughly that:
To the extent that our disagreement was rooted in a difference in how much to weight polls vs. priors, I continue to feel good about my side of the bet.
I wouldn’t have made this bet after the debate. I’m not sure to what extent I should have known that Biden would perform terribly. I was blindsided by how poorly he did, but maybe shouldn’t have been.
I definitely wouldn’t have made this bet after the assassination attempt, which I think increased Trump’s chances. But that event didn’t update me on how good my side of the bet was when I made it.
I think there’s like a 75-80% chance that Kamala Harris wins Virginia.
Probably no longer willing to make the bet, sorry. While my inside view is that Harris is more likely to win than Nate Silver’s 72%, I defer to his model enough that my “all things considered” view now puts her win probability around 75%.
Could we do your $350 to my $100? And the voiding condition makes sense.
Yup, sounds good! I’ve set myself a reminder for November 9th.
Have recorded on my website
Update for posterity: Nate Silver’s model gives Trump a ~1 in 6 chance of winning Virginia, making my side of this bet look bad.
Further updates:
On the one hand, Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a ~30% chance of winning in Virginia, making my side of the bet look good again.
On the other hand, the Economist model gives Trump a 10% chance of winning Delaware and a 20% chance of winning Illinois, which suggests that there’s something going wrong with the model and that it was untrustworthy a month ago.
That said, betting markets currently think there’s only a one in four chance that Biden is the nominee, so this bet probably won’t resolve.
Looks like this bet is voided. My take is roughly that:
To the extent that our disagreement was rooted in a difference in how much to weight polls vs. priors, I continue to feel good about my side of the bet.
I wouldn’t have made this bet after the debate. I’m not sure to what extent I should have known that Biden would perform terribly. I was blindsided by how poorly he did, but maybe shouldn’t have been.
I definitely wouldn’t have made this bet after the assassination attempt, which I think increased Trump’s chances. But that event didn’t update me on how good my side of the bet was when I made it.
I think there’s like a 75-80% chance that Kamala Harris wins Virginia.
I’m now happy to make this bet about Trump vs. Harris, if you’re interested.
I’d now make this bet if you were down. Offer expires in 48 hours.
Probably no longer willing to make the bet, sorry. While my inside view is that Harris is more likely to win than Nate Silver’s 72%, I defer to his model enough that my “all things considered” view now puts her win probability around 75%.
I’d like to wait and see what various models say.