On the one hand, Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a ~30% chance of winning in Virginia, making my side of the bet look good again.
On the other hand, the Economist model gives Trump a 10% chance of winning Delaware and a 20% chance of winning Illinois, which suggests that there’s something going wrong with the model and that it was untrustworthy a month ago.
That said, betting markets currently think there’s only a one in four chance that Biden is the nominee, so this bet probably won’t resolve.
Looks like this bet is voided. My take is roughly that:
To the extent that our disagreement was rooted in a difference in how much to weight polls vs. priors, I continue to feel good about my side of the bet.
I wouldn’t have made this bet after the debate. I’m not sure to what extent I should have known that Biden would perform terribly. I was blindsided by how poorly he did, but maybe shouldn’t have been.
I definitely wouldn’t have made this bet after the assassination attempt, which I think increased Trump’s chances. But that event didn’t update me on how good my side of the bet was when I made it.
I think there’s like a 75-80% chance that Kamala Harris wins Virginia.
Have recorded on my website
Update for posterity: Nate Silver’s model gives Trump a ~1 in 6 chance of winning Virginia, making my side of this bet look bad.
Further updates:
On the one hand, Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a ~30% chance of winning in Virginia, making my side of the bet look good again.
On the other hand, the Economist model gives Trump a 10% chance of winning Delaware and a 20% chance of winning Illinois, which suggests that there’s something going wrong with the model and that it was untrustworthy a month ago.
That said, betting markets currently think there’s only a one in four chance that Biden is the nominee, so this bet probably won’t resolve.
Looks like this bet is voided. My take is roughly that:
To the extent that our disagreement was rooted in a difference in how much to weight polls vs. priors, I continue to feel good about my side of the bet.
I wouldn’t have made this bet after the debate. I’m not sure to what extent I should have known that Biden would perform terribly. I was blindsided by how poorly he did, but maybe shouldn’t have been.
I definitely wouldn’t have made this bet after the assassination attempt, which I think increased Trump’s chances. But that event didn’t update me on how good my side of the bet was when I made it.
I think there’s like a 75-80% chance that Kamala Harris wins Virginia.