I have previously bet large sums on elections. Im not currently placing any bets on who will win the election. Seems too unclear to me (note I had a huge bet on biden in 2020, seemed clear then). However there are TONS of mispricings on polymarket and other sites. Things like ‘biden will withdraw or lose the nomination @ 23%’ is a good example.
Polymarket has gotten lots of attention in recent months, but I was shocked to find out how much inefficency there really is.
There was a market titled “What will Trump say during his RNC speech?” that was up a few days ago. At 7 pm, thetranscriptfor the speech was leaked, and you could easily find it by a google search or looking at the polymarket discord.
Trump started his speech at 9:30, and it was immediately that he was using the script. One entire hour into the speech I stumbled onto the transcript on Polymarkets discord. Despite the word “prisons” being in the leaked transcript that Trump was halfway through, Polymarket only gave it a 70% chance of being said. I quickly went to bet and made free money.
To be fair it was a smaller market with 800k in bets, but nonetheless I was shocked on how easy it was to make risk-free money.
I have previously bet large sums on elections. Im not currently placing any bets on who will win the election. Seems too unclear to me (note I had a huge bet on biden in 2020, seemed clear then). However there are TONS of mispricings on polymarket and other sites. Things like ‘biden will withdraw or lose the nomination @ 23%’ is a good example.
Given that Biden has dropped out, do you believe that the market was accurately priced at the time?
Polymarket has gotten lots of attention in recent months, but I was shocked to find out how much inefficency there really is.
There was a market titled “What will Trump say during his RNC speech?” that was up a few days ago. At 7 pm, the transcript for the speech was leaked, and you could easily find it by a google search or looking at the polymarket discord.
Trump started his speech at 9:30, and it was immediately that he was using the script. One entire hour into the speech I stumbled onto the transcript on Polymarkets discord. Despite the word “prisons” being in the leaked transcript that Trump was halfway through, Polymarket only gave it a 70% chance of being said. I quickly went to bet and made free money.
To be fair it was a smaller market with 800k in bets, but nonetheless I was shocked on how easy it was to make risk-free money.