Something I’ve been wondering while reading this is to what extent it makes sense to privilege longer timelines not based on their probability of being correct but on the expected difference you can make. I.e., you may take the pessimistic view that in a 15-year-to-AGI-world, the project of achieving alignment via the standard path is so doomed that your impact is dominated by worlds with longer timelines, even if they are less probable.
(I’m absolutely not suggesting that you shouldn’t become an engineer, this really is just a thought.)
Thanks! Yeah, that’s a good point mulling over. I guess it would hinge on the marginal improvement of EV in the doomed scenario to make that assertion. I don’t necessarily see things being completely, hopelessly doomed in a 15-20-year-to-AGI world. But I am also uncertain as to which role is more useful in the short-timeline world, aside from an engineer being able to contribute earlier. In the medium-term timeline world it seems to me like the marginal researcher has higher EV.
So if I would be completely uncertain, i.e. 50⁄50, which one is better in a short timeline world, then becoming a researcher would seem like the safer choice.
Something I’ve been wondering while reading this is to what extent it makes sense to privilege longer timelines not based on their probability of being correct but on the expected difference you can make. I.e., you may take the pessimistic view that in a 15-year-to-AGI-world, the project of achieving alignment via the standard path is so doomed that your impact is dominated by worlds with longer timelines, even if they are less probable.
(I’m absolutely not suggesting that you shouldn’t become an engineer, this really is just a thought.)
Thanks! Yeah, that’s a good point mulling over. I guess it would hinge on the marginal improvement of EV in the doomed scenario to make that assertion. I don’t necessarily see things being completely, hopelessly doomed in a 15-20-year-to-AGI world. But I am also uncertain as to which role is more useful in the short-timeline world, aside from an engineer being able to contribute earlier. In the medium-term timeline world it seems to me like the marginal researcher has higher EV.
So if I would be completely uncertain, i.e. 50⁄50, which one is better in a short timeline world, then becoming a researcher would seem like the safer choice.