If I wanted to know how likely it was that Republicans would win the next election, how could I go about estimating this from the financial markets?
http://www.fma.org/Porto/Papers/Effects_of_Partisanship_on_Sector_Performance_Paper.pdf
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?biw=1600&bih=809&um=1&ie=UTF-8&lr=&q=related:_PUN09hrCP0gsM:scholar.google.com/
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/08/31/weekend-reading-does-the-us-presidential-election-affect-the-stock-market/
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C007-S001-how-the-stock-market-can-predict-who-will-win-the.html
The summary seems to be: look at overall index gains to predict incumbent odds; look at sectors & candidates to predict by party.
If I wanted to know how likely it was that Republicans would win the next election, how could I go about estimating this from the financial markets?
http://www.fma.org/Porto/Papers/Effects_of_Partisanship_on_Sector_Performance_Paper.pdf
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?biw=1600&bih=809&um=1&ie=UTF-8&lr=&q=related:_PUN09hrCP0gsM:scholar.google.com/
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/08/31/weekend-reading-does-the-us-presidential-election-affect-the-stock-market/
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C007-S001-how-the-stock-market-can-predict-who-will-win-the.html
The summary seems to be: look at overall index gains to predict incumbent odds; look at sectors & candidates to predict by party.