(in writing the original comment, I actually wrote the second paragraph first then re-ordered them, which may have effected the consistency. I do think however it would be easy to forget to take this into account in calculating bit’s for Alice’s calculation while automatically taking it into acccount (via base rate which includes amount of thefts per time) in Bob’s calculation.)
Then, doesn’t the theft hypothesis also need to account for specific timeframe where the diamond was stolen?
Yes, it would.
(in writing the original comment, I actually wrote the second paragraph first then re-ordered them, which may have effected the consistency. I do think however it would be easy to forget to take this into account in calculating bit’s for Alice’s calculation while automatically taking it into acccount (via base rate which includes amount of thefts per time) in Bob’s calculation.)