Of course the choice of what sort of model we fit to our data can sometimes preordain the conclusion.
Another way to interpret this is there was a very steep update made by the community in early 2022, and since then it’s been relatively flat, or perhaps trending down slowly with a lot of noise (whereas before the update it was trending up slowly).
Good idea. Here’s just considering the predictions starting in 2022 and on. Then, you get a prediction update rate of 16 years per year.
Halloween, 2023, is when the AGI is extrapolated to arrive...
Of course the choice of what sort of model we fit to our data can sometimes preordain the conclusion.
Another way to interpret this is there was a very steep update made by the community in early 2022, and since then it’s been relatively flat, or perhaps trending down slowly with a lot of noise (whereas before the update it was trending up slowly).