Rationality is hard to measure. If LW doesn’t make many people more successful in mundane pursuits but makes many people subscribe to the goal of FAI, that’s reason to suspect that LW is not really teaching rationality, but rather something else.
(My opinions on this issue seem to become more radical as I write them down. I wonder where I will end up!)
I didn’t say anything about “rationality”. Whether the lessons help is a separate question from whether they’re aimed at correcting errors of reasoning or at shifting one’s goals in a specific direction. The posts I linked also respond to the objection about people “giving lip service to altruism” but doing little in practice.
Yes, the reasoning in the linked posts implies that deep inside, humans should be as altruistic as you say. But why should I believe that reasoning? I’d feel a lot more confident if we had an art of rationality that made people demonstrably more successful in mundane affairs and also, as a side effect, made some of them support FAI. If we only get the side effect but not the main benefit, something must be wrong with the reasoning.
Yes, the reasoning in the linked posts implies that deep inside, humans should be as altruistic as you say.
This is not what the posts are about, even if this works as one of the conclusions. The idea that urges and goals should be distinguished, for example, doesn’t say what your urges or goals should be, it stands separately on its own. There are many such results, and ideas such as altruism or importance of FAI are only few among them. Do these ideas demonstrate comparatively more visible measurable effect than the other ideas?
Rationality is hard to measure. If LW doesn’t make many people more successful in mundane pursuits but makes many people subscribe to the goal of FAI, that’s reason to suspect that LW is not really teaching rationality, but rather something else.
if prediction markets were legal, we could much more easily measure if LW helped rationality. Just ask people to make n bets or predictions per month and see 1) it they did better than the population average and 2) if they improved over time.
In fact, trying to get intrade legal in the US might be a very worthwhile project for just this reason ( beyond all the general social reasons to like prediction markets)
There is no need to wish or strive for regulatory changes that may never happen: I’ve pointed out in the past that non-money prediction markets generally are pretty accurate and competitive with money prediction markets; so money does not seem to be a crucial factor. Just systematic tracking and judgment.
(Being able to profit may attract some people, like me, but the fear of loss may also serve as a potent deterrent to users.)
I have written at length about how I believe prediction markets helped me but I have been helped even more by the free active you-can-sign-up-right-now-and-start-using-it,-really,-right-now http://www.PredictionBook.com
I routinely use LW-related ideas and strategies in predicting, and I believe my calibration graph reflects genuine success at predicting.
If other people have suggested this before, there may be enouph background support to make it worth following up on this idea.
When I get home from work, I will post in the discussion forum to see if people would be interested in working to legalize prediction markets ( like intrade) it the US.
[EDITED: shortly after making this post, I saw Gwern’s post above suggesting that an alternative like prediction book would be just as good. As a result I did not make a post about legalizing prediction markets and instead tried prediction book for a month and a half. After this trial, I still think that making a push to legalize predictions markets would be worthwhile]
Rationality is hard to measure. If LW doesn’t make many people more successful in mundane pursuits but makes many people subscribe to the goal of FAI, that’s reason to suspect that LW is not really teaching rationality, but rather something else.
(My opinions on this issue seem to become more radical as I write them down. I wonder where I will end up!)
I didn’t say anything about “rationality”. Whether the lessons help is a separate question from whether they’re aimed at correcting errors of reasoning or at shifting one’s goals in a specific direction. The posts I linked also respond to the objection about people “giving lip service to altruism” but doing little in practice.
Yes, the reasoning in the linked posts implies that deep inside, humans should be as altruistic as you say. But why should I believe that reasoning? I’d feel a lot more confident if we had an art of rationality that made people demonstrably more successful in mundane affairs and also, as a side effect, made some of them support FAI. If we only get the side effect but not the main benefit, something must be wrong with the reasoning.
This is not what the posts are about, even if this works as one of the conclusions. The idea that urges and goals should be distinguished, for example, doesn’t say what your urges or goals should be, it stands separately on its own. There are many such results, and ideas such as altruism or importance of FAI are only few among them. Do these ideas demonstrate comparatively more visible measurable effect than the other ideas?
if prediction markets were legal, we could much more easily measure if LW helped rationality. Just ask people to make n bets or predictions per month and see 1) it they did better than the population average and 2) if they improved over time.
In fact, trying to get intrade legal in the US might be a very worthwhile project for just this reason ( beyond all the general social reasons to like prediction markets)
There is no need to wish or strive for regulatory changes that may never happen: I’ve pointed out in the past that non-money prediction markets generally are pretty accurate and competitive with money prediction markets; so money does not seem to be a crucial factor. Just systematic tracking and judgment.
(Being able to profit may attract some people, like me, but the fear of loss may also serve as a potent deterrent to users.)
I have written at length about how I believe prediction markets helped me but I have been helped even more by the free active you-can-sign-up-right-now-and-start-using-it,-really,-right-now http://www.PredictionBook.com
I routinely use LW-related ideas and strategies in predicting, and I believe my calibration graph reflects genuine success at predicting.
Very nice idea, thanks! After some googling I found someone already made this suggestion in 2009.
If other people have suggested this before, there may be enouph background support to make it worth following up on this idea.
When I get home from work, I will post in the discussion forum to see if people would be interested in working to legalize prediction markets ( like intrade) it the US.
[EDITED: shortly after making this post, I saw Gwern’s post above suggesting that an alternative like prediction book would be just as good. As a result I did not make a post about legalizing prediction markets and instead tried prediction book for a month and a half. After this trial, I still think that making a push to legalize predictions markets would be worthwhile]