It only has to be different enough that there’s a significant chance of one person saying it isn’t likely enough. Given how bad people are with extreme values of probability, this wouldn’t be that surprising.
Also, nobody has ever said where the cutoff is. Two jury members could both think there’s a 97% chance of guilt, and one thinks the cutoff is 95%, while the other thinks it’s 99%, and they’ll disagree on whether the defendant should be considered innocent or guilty.
It only has to be different enough that there’s a significant chance of one person saying it isn’t likely enough. Given how bad people are with extreme values of probability, this wouldn’t be that surprising.
Also, nobody has ever said where the cutoff is. Two jury members could both think there’s a 97% chance of guilt, and one thinks the cutoff is 95%, while the other thinks it’s 99%, and they’ll disagree on whether the defendant should be considered innocent or guilty.