It seems that the reasonable assessment of P(guilty) should only rarely fall so close to the cut-off line that there could be serious doubt about the jury’s verdict. So if the suspense is common, that still demonstrates that the assessments of probability held by different case participants are all over the place.
It only has to be different enough that there’s a significant chance of one person saying it isn’t likely enough. Given how bad people are with extreme values of probability, this wouldn’t be that surprising.
Also, nobody has ever said where the cutoff is. Two jury members could both think there’s a 97% chance of guilt, and one thinks the cutoff is 95%, while the other thinks it’s 99%, and they’ll disagree on whether the defendant should be considered innocent or guilty.
You are right. The suspense isn’t about the probability, but about the probability times value. Where the value is the sentence or the pardon. Something big is at stake here.
When the maximal sentence is $100, then there is no big suspense no matter how far beyond reasonable doubt the case is.
It seems that the reasonable assessment of P(guilty) should only rarely fall so close to the cut-off line that there could be serious doubt about the jury’s verdict. So if the suspense is common, that still demonstrates that the assessments of probability held by different case participants are all over the place.
It only has to be different enough that there’s a significant chance of one person saying it isn’t likely enough. Given how bad people are with extreme values of probability, this wouldn’t be that surprising.
Also, nobody has ever said where the cutoff is. Two jury members could both think there’s a 97% chance of guilt, and one thinks the cutoff is 95%, while the other thinks it’s 99%, and they’ll disagree on whether the defendant should be considered innocent or guilty.
You are right. The suspense isn’t about the probability, but about the probability times value. Where the value is the sentence or the pardon. Something big is at stake here.
When the maximal sentence is $100, then there is no big suspense no matter how far beyond reasonable doubt the case is.