something like 1918---a really, really bad flu that killed a ton of older or sick people and then mostly faded into the background
The 1918 Flu pandemic’s Second Wave killed massive amounts of young, healthy adults. 99% of deaths occurred in people under 65, and half of all deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old. Source: Wikipedia.
Apparently the virus had naturally selected in the trenches to become much more deadly. People mildly ill remained in the trenches, and so the virus could not spread. But those becoming gravely ill were taken to military hospitals, were the virus could spread.
This is the opposite of what usually happens: mild cases spread because people still do their usual activities. Serious cases limit because people are too sick to spread it around.
This is the very reason why epidemiologists monitor virus outbreaks in conflict zones: natural selection is reversed, resulting in a deadly virus strain.
Isn’t that exactly what we are doing in our lockdown world? We are socially distancing and self-isolating, so mild cases always die out. But when we get critically ill. we have to go to hospitals which, despite our best efforts, are hotbeds of infection.
Sounds to me like we have a good chance for the second Covid-19 wave to be much deadlier.
Apparently the virus had naturally selected in the trenches to become much more deadly. People mildly ill remained in the trenches, and so the virus could not spread. But those becoming gravely ill were taken to military hospitals, were the virus could spread.
Where is the evidence for the increased spreading through military hospitals? It’s a nice story, and plausible.
Why wouldn’t it have spread at as well in the trenches where you have repeated exposure to the same group of people? Open air/sunlight, perhaps? Or are you emphasizing the travel aspect (coming into contact with more people total than the mild cases)?
Isn’t that exactly what we are doing in our lockdown world? We are socially distancing and self-isolating, so mild cases always die out.
I don’t follow your “so …”
People who have avoided contact since Feb are incredibly more likely to be delaying (perhaps forever) their date of infection. Basically none of them have yet had a mild case.
It’s an open question whether the strain we who’ve avoided it so far eventually are exposed to is more or less severe in symptoms (obviously it will tend to be more contagious) than the one people got in earlier waves. I always expected it would be (because fast onset fatal strains are quarantined more effectively and cannot spread) slower-onset, more lingering, but less severe. I don’t have much reason to change my mind, even though you’ve brought an interesting historical claim into view.
Besides hospital workers, hardly anyone is going to hospitals unless they have covid already, and although it’s not perfect, hygiene is practiced. I agree that hospital workers are more likely to contract a severe strain; that’s why they should arguably should have been variolated by intentional light exposure already.
The 1918 Flu pandemic’s Second Wave killed massive amounts of young, healthy adults. 99% of deaths occurred in people under 65, and half of all deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old. Source: Wikipedia.
Oops! Thank you. I was aware of that, but got mixed up while writing and didn’t separate my ideas. I meant “like 1918” as in a flu mutation that made it behave much more dangerously. I was thinking the next mutation might be more likely to target the old and sick instead of repeating the cytokine storm thing with the young, but either could easily happen (this one might cause a cytokine storm that attacks the old, in many cases, or at least I’ve read that is a possibility?). I also figured that in modern times it would be easy to intervene with the young because they weren’t in trenches in a world war with a less developed medical system. But COVID-19 is so contagious that it doesn’t seem way easier to control.
Those are good and worrying points about natural selection. I’m not at all confident we’re handling this intelligently. Maybe there’s not much that can be done to help, but making it worse is not good.
The 1918 Flu pandemic’s Second Wave killed massive amounts of young, healthy adults. 99% of deaths occurred in people under 65, and half of all deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old. Source: Wikipedia.
Apparently the virus had naturally selected in the trenches to become much more deadly. People mildly ill remained in the trenches, and so the virus could not spread. But those becoming gravely ill were taken to military hospitals, were the virus could spread.
This is the opposite of what usually happens: mild cases spread because people still do their usual activities. Serious cases limit because people are too sick to spread it around.
This is the very reason why epidemiologists monitor virus outbreaks in conflict zones: natural selection is reversed, resulting in a deadly virus strain.
Isn’t that exactly what we are doing in our lockdown world? We are socially distancing and self-isolating, so mild cases always die out. But when we get critically ill. we have to go to hospitals which, despite our best efforts, are hotbeds of infection.
Sounds to me like we have a good chance for the second Covid-19 wave to be much deadlier.
Where is the evidence for the increased spreading through military hospitals? It’s a nice story, and plausible.
Why wouldn’t it have spread at as well in the trenches where you have repeated exposure to the same group of people? Open air/sunlight, perhaps? Or are you emphasizing the travel aspect (coming into contact with more people total than the mild cases)?
I don’t follow your “so …”
People who have avoided contact since Feb are incredibly more likely to be delaying (perhaps forever) their date of infection. Basically none of them have yet had a mild case.
It’s an open question whether the strain we who’ve avoided it so far eventually are exposed to is more or less severe in symptoms (obviously it will tend to be more contagious) than the one people got in earlier waves. I always expected it would be (because fast onset fatal strains are quarantined more effectively and cannot spread) slower-onset, more lingering, but less severe. I don’t have much reason to change my mind, even though you’ve brought an interesting historical claim into view.
Besides hospital workers, hardly anyone is going to hospitals unless they have covid already, and although it’s not perfect, hygiene is practiced. I agree that hospital workers are more likely to contract a severe strain; that’s why they should arguably should have been variolated by intentional light exposure already.
Oops! Thank you. I was aware of that, but got mixed up while writing and didn’t separate my ideas. I meant “like 1918” as in a flu mutation that made it behave much more dangerously. I was thinking the next mutation might be more likely to target the old and sick instead of repeating the cytokine storm thing with the young, but either could easily happen (this one might cause a cytokine storm that attacks the old, in many cases, or at least I’ve read that is a possibility?). I also figured that in modern times it would be easy to intervene with the young because they weren’t in trenches in a world war with a less developed medical system. But COVID-19 is so contagious that it doesn’t seem way easier to control.
Those are good and worrying points about natural selection. I’m not at all confident we’re handling this intelligently. Maybe there’s not much that can be done to help, but making it worse is not good.