Consider the consensus genome of some species of tree.
Long before we were able to sequence that genome, we were able to deduce that something-like-it existed. Something had to be carrying whatever information made these trees so similar (inter-breedable). Eventually people isolated DNA as the relevant information-carrier, but even then it was most of a century before we knew the sequence.
That sequence is a natural latent: most of the members of the tree’s species are ~independent of each other given the sequence (and some general background info about our world), and the sequence can be estimated pretty well from ~any moderate-sized sample of the trees. Furthermore, we could deduce the existence of that natural latent long before we knew the sequence.
Point of this example: there’s a distinction between realizing a certain natural latent variable exists, and knowing the value of that variable. To pick a simpler example: it’s the difference between realizing that (P, V, T) mediate between the state of a gas at one time and its state at a later time, vs actually measuring the values of pressure, volume and temperature for the gas.
Suppose that a lot of people don’t like krummholz and have taken to using the formal species name P. albicaulis as a disparaging term (even though a few other species can also grow as krummholz).
I think Tail is saying that “P. albicaulis” isn’t a natural abstraction, because most people you encounter using that term on Twitter are talking about krummholz, without realizing that other species can grow as krummholz or that many P. albicaulis grow as upright trees.
I’m saying it’s dumb to assert that P. albicaulis isn’t a natural abstraction just because most people are ignorant of dendrology and are only paying attention to the shrub vs. tree subspace: if I look at more features of vegetation than just broad shape, I end up needing to formulate P. albicaulis to explain the things some of these woody plants have in common despite their shape.
I’m saying it’s dumb to assert that P. albicaulis isn’t a natural abstraction just because most people are ignorant of dendrology and are only paying attention to the shrub vs. tree subspace: if I look at more features of vegetation than just broad shape, I end up needing to formulate P. albicaulis to explain the things some of these woody plants have in common despite their shape.
And I think this is fine if you’re one of the approximately 5 people (me, maybe Bailey, maybe Andura, maybe Hsu, maybe you—even this is generous since e.g. I think you naturally thought of autogynephilia and gender progressivism as being more closely related than they really are) in the world who do observe things this closely, but it also seems relevant to notice that the rest of the world doesn’t and can’t observe things this closely, and that therefore we really ought to refactor our abstractions such that they align better with what everyone else can think about.
Like if our autogynephilia discourse was mostly centered on talking with each other about it, it’d be a different story, but you mostly address the rationalist community, and Bailey mostly addresses GCs and HBDs, and so on. So “most people you encounter using that term on Twitter” doesn’t refer to irrelevant outsiders, it refers to the people you’re trying to have the conversation with.
And like a key part of my point is that they mostly couldn’t fix it if they wanted to. P. albicaulis has visible indicators that allows you to diagnose the species by looking at it, but autogynephiles don’t unless you get in private in a way that GCs and rationalists basically are never gonna do.
I agree with that, but I think it is complicated in the case of autogynephilia. My claim is that there are a handful of different conditions that people look at and go “something had to be carrying whatever information made these people so similar”, and the something is not simply autogynephilia in these sense that I talk about it, but rather varies from condition to condition (typically including autogynephilia as one of the causes, but often not the most relevant one).
Consider the consensus genome of some species of tree.
Long before we were able to sequence that genome, we were able to deduce that something-like-it existed. Something had to be carrying whatever information made these trees so similar (inter-breedable). Eventually people isolated DNA as the relevant information-carrier, but even then it was most of a century before we knew the sequence.
That sequence is a natural latent: most of the members of the tree’s species are ~independent of each other given the sequence (and some general background info about our world), and the sequence can be estimated pretty well from ~any moderate-sized sample of the trees. Furthermore, we could deduce the existence of that natural latent long before we knew the sequence.
Point of this example: there’s a distinction between realizing a certain natural latent variable exists, and knowing the value of that variable. To pick a simpler example: it’s the difference between realizing that (P, V, T) mediate between the state of a gas at one time and its state at a later time, vs actually measuring the values of pressure, volume and temperature for the gas.
Let’s say the species is the whitebark pine P. albicaulis, which grows in a sprawling shrub-like form called krummholz in rough high-altitude environments, but looks like a conventional upright tree in more forgiving climates.
Suppose that a lot of people don’t like krummholz and have taken to using the formal species name P. albicaulis as a disparaging term (even though a few other species can also grow as krummholz).
I think Tail is saying that “P. albicaulis” isn’t a natural abstraction, because most people you encounter using that term on Twitter are talking about krummholz, without realizing that other species can grow as krummholz or that many P. albicaulis grow as upright trees.
I’m saying it’s dumb to assert that P. albicaulis isn’t a natural abstraction just because most people are ignorant of dendrology and are only paying attention to the shrub vs. tree subspace: if I look at more features of vegetation than just broad shape, I end up needing to formulate P. albicaulis to explain the things some of these woody plants have in common despite their shape.
And I think this is fine if you’re one of the approximately 5 people (me, maybe Bailey, maybe Andura, maybe Hsu, maybe you—even this is generous since e.g. I think you naturally thought of autogynephilia and gender progressivism as being more closely related than they really are) in the world who do observe things this closely, but it also seems relevant to notice that the rest of the world doesn’t and can’t observe things this closely, and that therefore we really ought to refactor our abstractions such that they align better with what everyone else can think about.
Like if our autogynephilia discourse was mostly centered on talking with each other about it, it’d be a different story, but you mostly address the rationalist community, and Bailey mostly addresses GCs and HBDs, and so on. So “most people you encounter using that term on Twitter” doesn’t refer to irrelevant outsiders, it refers to the people you’re trying to have the conversation with.
And like a key part of my point is that they mostly couldn’t fix it if they wanted to. P. albicaulis has visible indicators that allows you to diagnose the species by looking at it, but autogynephiles don’t unless you get in private in a way that GCs and rationalists basically are never gonna do.
(Continued in containment thread.)
I agree with that, but I think it is complicated in the case of autogynephilia. My claim is that there are a handful of different conditions that people look at and go “something had to be carrying whatever information made these people so similar”, and the something is not simply autogynephilia in these sense that I talk about it, but rather varies from condition to condition (typically including autogynephilia as one of the causes, but often not the most relevant one).