More predictions from Gary Marcus for the end of 2025: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus.
Unfortunately, seems likely that for each prediction people with short timelines either agree with the prediction or think it is poorly operationalized (for most of these).
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Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
More predictions from Gary Marcus for the end of 2025: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus.
Unfortunately, seems likely that for each prediction people with short timelines either agree with the prediction or think it is poorly operationalized (for most of these).