I looked into things a bit and think it’s 85% likely that the new variants in the UK and SA are significantly more transmissible, and that this will lead to more severe restrictions globally in the next few months because no way they aren’t already in lots of places. I also think there’s a 40% chance the SA variant is significantly more deadly than previous variants, but not sure if that means 50% higher IFR or 150% higher (I have no idea what prior to use for this).
Update December 26th: The longer we hear no concerning news about the lethality of the SA variant, the more likely it is that it’s indeed benign and that initial anecdotal reports of it being surprisingly aggressive in young-ish people without comorbidities were just rumours. Right now I’m at 20% for it being significantly more deadly, and it’s falling continuously.
To be clear, I don’t mean to take a stance on how much more transmissible it is exactly, 33% or 65% or whatever. I think it’s 85% likely that it’s a difference that’s significant enough to affect things, but it’s less clear whether it’s significant enough that previous containment strategies become vastly more costly or even unworkable.
I looked into things a bit and think it’s 85% likely that the new variants in the UK and SA are significantly more transmissible, and that this will lead to more severe restrictions globally in the next few months because no way they aren’t already in lots of places. I also think there’s a 40% chance the SA variant is significantly more deadly than previous variants, but not sure if that means 50% higher IFR or 150% higher (I have no idea what prior to use for this).
Update December 26th: The longer we hear no concerning news about the lethality of the SA variant, the more likely it is that it’s indeed benign and that initial anecdotal reports of it being surprisingly aggressive in young-ish people without comorbidities were just rumours. Right now I’m at 20% for it being significantly more deadly, and it’s falling continuously.
To be clear, I don’t mean to take a stance on how much more transmissible it is exactly, 33% or 65% or whatever. I think it’s 85% likely that it’s a difference that’s significant enough to affect things, but it’s less clear whether it’s significant enough that previous containment strategies become vastly more costly or even unworkable.