Some possibilities: - It didn’t originate in the UK. It’s already widespread in many countries, and the UK just happened to detect it. - There’s actually a bunch of more infectious strains all over the place, but they just haven’t been detected. The higher infectiousness has already been impacting the covid case numbers for a while.
Looking at daily infections in Western countries, they came down significantly after restrictions were reimposed starting in September. Why is it that only in the UK (and Netherlands + a handful others) are daily infections rising at an alarming rate despite restrictions still in place?
It’s a great point. So is your guess that the fact that the new strain originated on the exact country where we do most of the checking for new strains just a coincidence? And not some form of survivorship bias?
There’s a possibility that it didn’t originate in the UK, but it likely originated either in the UK or one of the other handful of countries that have seen significant spikes in infections despite no loosening of restrictions.
I wonder if the sudden increase is not just the result of some holiday or cold weather some time before. What are the chances that a new strain would dramatically increase daily cases in two countries within a few days of each other. Notably it started to increase in the Netherlands a few days before the UK. If anything this would point to it coming from a third country, yet it would still be odd that the outbreaks progress roughly in the same manner.
Looking at daily infections in Western countries, they came down significantly after restrictions were reimposed starting in September. Why is it that only in the UK (and Netherlands + a handful others) are daily infections rising at an alarming rate despite restrictions still in place?
It’s a great point. So is your guess that the fact that the new strain originated on the exact country where we do most of the checking for new strains just a coincidence? And not some form of survivorship bias?
There’s a possibility that it didn’t originate in the UK, but it likely originated either in the UK or one of the other handful of countries that have seen significant spikes in infections despite no loosening of restrictions.
I wonder if the sudden increase is not just the result of some holiday or cold weather some time before. What are the chances that a new strain would dramatically increase daily cases in two countries within a few days of each other. Notably it started to increase in the Netherlands a few days before the UK. If anything this would point to it coming from a third country, yet it would still be odd that the outbreaks progress roughly in the same manner.