I see what you’re saying and it’s a sensible approximation but I’m not actually sure you can use Bayes in situations with “mutual simulation” like that. Are you familiar with updateless/ambient decision theory perchance?
This post combined with all the comments is perhaps the best place to start, or this post might be an easier introduction to the sorts of problems that Bayes has trouble with. This is the LW wiki hub for decision theory. That said it would take me awhile to explain why I think it’d particularly interest you and how it’s related to things like lucky socks, especially as a lot of the most interesting ideas are still highly speculative. I’d like to write such an explanation at some point but can’t at the moment.
I see what you’re saying and it’s a sensible approximation but I’m not actually sure you can use Bayes in situations with “mutual simulation” like that. Are you familiar with updateless/ambient decision theory perchance?
No, I’m not. Should I be? Do you have a link to offer?
This post combined with all the comments is perhaps the best place to start, or this post might be an easier introduction to the sorts of problems that Bayes has trouble with. This is the LW wiki hub for decision theory. That said it would take me awhile to explain why I think it’d particularly interest you and how it’s related to things like lucky socks, especially as a lot of the most interesting ideas are still highly speculative. I’d like to write such an explanation at some point but can’t at the moment.