It seems, I dunno, kind of a frequentist way of thinking about the probability that I’m wrong.
There are numerous studies that show that our brain’s natural way of thinking out probabilities is in terms of frequencies, and that people show less bias when presented with frequencies than when they are presented with percentages.
There are numerous studies that show that our brain’s natural way of thinking out probabilities is in terms of frequencies
Thinking about which probabilities?
Probability is a complex concept. The probability in the sentence “the probability of getting more than 60 heads in 100 fair coin tosses” is a very different beast from the probability in the sentence “the probability of rain tomorrow”.
There is a reason that both the frequentist and the Bayesian approaches exist.
There are numerous studies that show that our brain’s natural way of thinking out probabilities is in terms of frequencies, and that people show less bias when presented with frequencies than when they are presented with percentages.
Thinking about which probabilities?
Probability is a complex concept. The probability in the sentence “the probability of getting more than 60 heads in 100 fair coin tosses” is a very different beast from the probability in the sentence “the probability of rain tomorrow”.
There is a reason that both the frequentist and the Bayesian approaches exist.