Trust is part of what I was gesturing at with beliefs-about-the-equilibrium, but it feels like that would be the hardest thing to quantify. I have been mentally equating “how far can I trust this player” with “what do I think this player’s incentives are” and assuming that even if very few players are willing to take the risk of changing, how close that calculation is must vary.
To a first order of approximation, my theory of success is to provide a new incentive which exceeds the cost of being a punished minority in the short term.
Trust is part of what I was gesturing at with beliefs-about-the-equilibrium, but it feels like that would be the hardest thing to quantify. I have been mentally equating “how far can I trust this player” with “what do I think this player’s incentives are” and assuming that even if very few players are willing to take the risk of changing, how close that calculation is must vary.
To a first order of approximation, my theory of success is to provide a new incentive which exceeds the cost of being a punished minority in the short term.