Seems we have a big disagreement about the real-world effects of superintelligence, then. I agree they’ll be bottlenecked on a bunch of stuff, but when I try to estimate how fast things will be going overall (i.e. how much those bottlenecks will bite) I end up thinking something like a year or two till robotic economy comparable to grass, whereas you seem to be thinking doubling times will hover around 1 year for decades. I’d love to discuss sometime. tbc there’s a lot of uncertainty, I’m not confident, etc.
Seems we have a big disagreement about the real-world effects of superintelligence, then. I agree they’ll be bottlenecked on a bunch of stuff, but when I try to estimate how fast things will be going overall (i.e. how much those bottlenecks will bite) I end up thinking something like a year or two till robotic economy comparable to grass, whereas you seem to be thinking doubling times will hover around 1 year for decades. I’d love to discuss sometime. tbc there’s a lot of uncertainty, I’m not confident, etc.