Putting $75,000 into escrow for 3 years for a payoff of $1000 is a terrible financial move even if the evidence rationally supported a 99.9+% likelihood of receiving the payout. But it doesn’t: even if the underlying question met that criterion, the payout chance is definitely lower which makes that a bet that only a fool would take.
Agree, I hope rats is wealthy and doesn’t really care about the money put into these bets because odds are most of the counterparties would either not pay out or would be insolvent in the event of a payout.
most of the counterparties would either not pay out or would be insolvent in the event of a payout
At this rate there is unlikely to be any counterparties, despite me being the one taking a financial risk. I suppose that rationalists have begun updating on this question, or simply not many people saw the bet.
Many of us bet with RatsWrongAboutUAP at 50:1 odds (at least me (simon), Charlie Steiner, Algon, Philh and Thomas Sepulchre). Some bettors with less history or who for whatever reason bet later (after RatsWrongAboutUAP increased the odds he was demanding, such as Eliezer) got less favourable odds. That offer got plenty of attention, and as it was more favourable than what you are offering, anyone who would bet with you should have already bet with RatsWrongAboutUAP. Even now AFAIK his offer of 150:1 is still open, and doesn’t come with demands about people revealing private details of their finances as a precondition to the bet. Also, your credibility as an actual bettor (as opposed to someone, say, fishing for information) is lower due to your lack of history of actual payouts.
demands about people revealing private details of their finances as a precondition to the bet
Mine doesn’t either, I only ask for a credible reputation. My offer was to lower the odds from 150:1 to 100:1 if the other party would give additional financial evidence.
and as it was more favourable than what you are offering
For the people who got better than 150:1. But otherwise, I think that my bet is more appealing due to the reduced time frame. But more importantly: the ontology most frequently professed on LW, at least formerly, could not consistently allow for accepting this bet at 50:1 yet not at 150:1.
Also, your credibility as an actual bettor (as opposed to someone, say, fishing for information) is lower due to your lack of history of actual payouts.
Maybe, but I don’t think those people had thought of this: if I fail to pay out (which could be confirmed quickly) then the person who had accepted the bet would gain substantial bragging rights for reporting this, and would likely gain much karma. The event of a supposed UFO believer making a bet with rationalists, and running away after the bet had been agreed to, should be a congenial one.
Out of curiosity, since you mention evidence, what odds would you find acceptable? (In the non-escrow case, where I will pay immediately but you don’t)
Putting $75,000 into escrow for 3 years for a payoff of $1000 is a terrible financial move even if the evidence rationally supported a 99.9+% likelihood of receiving the payout. But it doesn’t: even if the underlying question met that criterion, the payout chance is definitely lower which makes that a bet that only a fool would take.
Agree, I hope rats is wealthy and doesn’t really care about the money put into these bets because odds are most of the counterparties would either not pay out or would be insolvent in the event of a payout.
At this rate there is unlikely to be any counterparties, despite me being the one taking a financial risk. I suppose that rationalists have begun updating on this question, or simply not many people saw the bet.
Many of us bet with RatsWrongAboutUAP at 50:1 odds (at least me (simon), Charlie Steiner, Algon, Philh and Thomas Sepulchre). Some bettors with less history or who for whatever reason bet later (after RatsWrongAboutUAP increased the odds he was demanding, such as Eliezer) got less favourable odds. That offer got plenty of attention, and as it was more favourable than what you are offering, anyone who would bet with you should have already bet with RatsWrongAboutUAP. Even now AFAIK his offer of 150:1 is still open, and doesn’t come with demands about people revealing private details of their finances as a precondition to the bet. Also, your credibility as an actual bettor (as opposed to someone, say, fishing for information) is lower due to your lack of history of actual payouts.
Mine doesn’t either, I only ask for a credible reputation. My offer was to lower the odds from 150:1 to 100:1 if the other party would give additional financial evidence.
For the people who got better than 150:1. But otherwise, I think that my bet is more appealing due to the reduced time frame. But more importantly: the ontology most frequently professed on LW, at least formerly, could not consistently allow for accepting this bet at 50:1 yet not at 150:1.
Maybe, but I don’t think those people had thought of this: if I fail to pay out (which could be confirmed quickly) then the person who had accepted the bet would gain substantial bragging rights for reporting this, and would likely gain much karma. The event of a supposed UFO believer making a bet with rationalists, and running away after the bet had been agreed to, should be a congenial one.
Out of curiosity, since you mention evidence, what odds would you find acceptable? (In the non-escrow case, where I will pay immediately but you don’t)