Since it seems to be all the rage nowadays, due to Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness, here’s a Manifold market I created on when the first (or whether any) AGI company will be “nationalized”.
I would be in the never camp, unless the AI safety policy people get their way. But I don’t like betting in my own markets (it makes them more difficult to judge in the case of an edge-case).
Never ? That’s quite a bold prediction.
Seems more likely than not that AI companies will be effectively nationalized.
I’m curious why you think it will never happen.
I think in fast-takeoff worlds, the USG won’t be fast enough to nationalize the industry, and in slow-takeoff worlds, the USG will pursue regulation on the level of military contractors of such companies, but won’t nationalize them. I mainly think this because this is the way the USG usually treats military contractors (including strict & mandatory security requirements, and gatekeeping the industry), and really its my understanding of how it treats most projects it wants to get done which it doesn’t already have infrastructure in place to complete.
Nationalization, in the US, is just very rare.
Even during world war 2, my understanding is very few industries—even those vital to the war effort—were nationalized. People love talking about the Manhattan Project, but that was not an industry that was nationalized, that was a research project started by & for the government. AI is a billion-dollar industry. The AGI labs (their people, leaders, and stock-holders [or in OAI’s case, their profit participation unit holders]) are not just going to sit idly by as they’re taken over.
And neither may the national security apparatus of the US. I don’t know too much about the internal beliefs of that organization, but I’d bet they’re pretty happy with the present dynamic of the US issuing contracts, and having a host of contractors bid for them.
I have a variety of responses to a variety of objections someone could have, but I don’t know which are cruxy or interesting for you in particular, so I won’t try addressing all of them.
Since it seems to be all the rage nowadays, due to Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness, here’s a Manifold market I created on when the first (or whether any) AGI company will be “nationalized”.
I would be in the never camp, unless the AI safety policy people get their way. But I don’t like betting in my own markets (it makes them more difficult to judge in the case of an edge-case).
Never ? That’s quite a bold prediction. Seems more likely than not that AI companies will be effectively nationalized. I’m curious why you think it will never happen.
In particular, 25% chance of nationalization by EOY 2040.
I think in fast-takeoff worlds, the USG won’t be fast enough to nationalize the industry, and in slow-takeoff worlds, the USG will pursue regulation on the level of military contractors of such companies, but won’t nationalize them. I mainly think this because this is the way the USG usually treats military contractors (including strict & mandatory security requirements, and gatekeeping the industry), and really its my understanding of how it treats most projects it wants to get done which it doesn’t already have infrastructure in place to complete.
Nationalization, in the US, is just very rare.
Even during world war 2, my understanding is very few industries—even those vital to the war effort—were nationalized. People love talking about the Manhattan Project, but that was not an industry that was nationalized, that was a research project started by & for the government. AI is a billion-dollar industry. The AGI labs (their people, leaders, and stock-holders [or in OAI’s case, their profit participation unit holders]) are not just going to sit idly by as they’re taken over.
And neither may the national security apparatus of the US. I don’t know too much about the internal beliefs of that organization, but I’d bet they’re pretty happy with the present dynamic of the US issuing contracts, and having a host of contractors bid for them.
I have a variety of responses to a variety of objections someone could have, but I don’t know which are cruxy or interesting for you in particular, so I won’t try addressing all of them.
This. Very much.
Truman tried to nationalize steel companies on the basis of national security to get around a strike. Was badly benchslapped.