Taking the ‘China good in marginal improvements, less in breakthroughs’ story in some of these sources at face value, the critical question becomes whether leadership in AI hinges more on breakthroughs or on marginal innovations & scaling. I guess both could be argued for, with the latter being more relevant especially if breakthroughs generally diffuse quickly.
I take as the two other principal points from these sources (though also haven’t read all in full detail): (i) some organizational drawbacks hampering China’s innovation sector, esp. what one might call high-quality innovation (ii) that said, innovation strategies have been updated and there seems to be progress observed in China’s innovation output over time.
I’m at least slightly skeptical about is the journals/citations based metrics, as I’m wary of stats being distorted by English language/US citation-circles. Though that’s more of a side point.
In conclusion, I don’t update my estimate much. The picture painted is mixed anyway, with lots of scope for China to become stronger in innovating any time even if it should now indeed have significant gaps still. I would remain totally unsurprised if many leading AI innovations also come out of China in the coming years (or decades, assuming we’ll witness any), though I admit to remain a lay person on the topic—a lay person skeptical about so-called experts’ views in that domain.
Indeed. I also note that if innovation is hampered by institutional support or misallocated funding / support, we should have higher probability on a rapid & surprising improvement. If its hampered by cultural support, we should expect slower improvement.
Thanks!
Taking the ‘China good in marginal improvements, less in breakthroughs’ story in some of these sources at face value, the critical question becomes whether leadership in AI hinges more on breakthroughs or on marginal innovations & scaling. I guess both could be argued for, with the latter being more relevant especially if breakthroughs generally diffuse quickly.
I take as the two other principal points from these sources (though also haven’t read all in full detail): (i) some organizational drawbacks hampering China’s innovation sector, esp. what one might call high-quality innovation (ii) that said, innovation strategies have been updated and there seems to be progress observed in China’s innovation output over time.
I’m at least slightly skeptical about is the journals/citations based metrics, as I’m wary of stats being distorted by English language/US citation-circles. Though that’s more of a side point.
In conclusion, I don’t update my estimate much. The picture painted is mixed anyway, with lots of scope for China to become stronger in innovating any time even if it should now indeed have significant gaps still. I would remain totally unsurprised if many leading AI innovations also come out of China in the coming years (or decades, assuming we’ll witness any), though I admit to remain a lay person on the topic—a lay person skeptical about so-called experts’ views in that domain.
Indeed. I also note that if innovation is hampered by institutional support or misallocated funding / support, we should have higher probability on a rapid & surprising improvement. If its hampered by cultural support, we should expect slower improvement.