A bit of both I guess? Insofar as there are things we can’t imagine now, but that a smart hardworking human expert could do in 2000 seconds if and when the situation arose / if and when they put their mind to it, then those things will be doable by AI in 2026 in my median projection.
Unfortunately, my view and Richard’s views don’t really diverge strongly until it’s pretty much too late, as you can see from the chart. :( I think both of us will be very interested in trying to track/measure growth in t-AGI, but he’d be trying to measure the growth rate and then assume it continues going at that rate for years and years, whereas I’d be trying to measure the growth rate so I can guess at how long we have left before it ‘goes critical’ so to speak. For ‘going critical’ we can look at how fast AI R&D is going and try to measure and track that and notice when it starts to speed up due to automation. It’s already probably sped up a little bit, e.g. Copilot helping with coding...
A bit of both I guess? Insofar as there are things we can’t imagine now, but that a smart hardworking human expert could do in 2000 seconds if and when the situation arose / if and when they put their mind to it, then those things will be doable by AI in 2026 in my median projection.
Unfortunately, my view and Richard’s views don’t really diverge strongly until it’s pretty much too late, as you can see from the chart. :( I think both of us will be very interested in trying to track/measure growth in t-AGI, but he’d be trying to measure the growth rate and then assume it continues going at that rate for years and years, whereas I’d be trying to measure the growth rate so I can guess at how long we have left before it ‘goes critical’ so to speak. For ‘going critical’ we can look at how fast AI R&D is going and try to measure and track that and notice when it starts to speed up due to automation. It’s already probably sped up a little bit, e.g. Copilot helping with coding...