Silly unserious users don’t accumulate mana because they make poor bets. That’s where the prediction power is coming from, it’s not peoples greed for mana, it’s that good predictors earn net mana and their opinions weight grows with time. Being wrong reduces the weight.
There was a huge flood of all in bettors on lk-99 that acted to funnel mana to the Nos.
Only after a while! The highest scorers in the first few days of poker tournaments tend to be irrationally aggressive players who got lucky. So expect early leaderboards to be filled with silly people.If the average user only makes a bet a week, it might take years.
Agree. Also I realized when I gave lk-99 as an example : it doesn’t take a superforecaster to guess a room temperature superconductor market might be overvalued. So the effect of that trading event is moving “dumb fake money” to “slightly less dumb fake money”. It’s enriching a bunch of less-than-super forecasters who will make bets and only lose money with time.
Real money markets aren’t actually different, dumb money can move into a market from outside.
The p2w element of manifold may also reduce it’s predictive power, since willingness to pay for mana may be uncorrelated with predictive ability.
Do you expect them to make bad bets? If so, I disagree and I think you might be too confident given the evidence you have. We can check this belief against reality by looking at the total profit earned by my referred users here. If their profit goes up over time, they are making good bets; otherwise, they are making bad bets. At the moment, they are at +13063 mana.
The sillyness may get you more users but don’t be surprised when the users you get are silly.
Silly unserious users don’t accumulate mana because they make poor bets. That’s where the prediction power is coming from, it’s not peoples greed for mana, it’s that good predictors earn net mana and their opinions weight grows with time. Being wrong reduces the weight.
There was a huge flood of all in bettors on lk-99 that acted to funnel mana to the Nos.
Only after a while! The highest scorers in the first few days of poker tournaments tend to be irrationally aggressive players who got lucky. So expect early leaderboards to be filled with silly people.If the average user only makes a bet a week, it might take years.
Agree. Also I realized when I gave lk-99 as an example : it doesn’t take a superforecaster to guess a room temperature superconductor market might be overvalued. So the effect of that trading event is moving “dumb fake money” to “slightly less dumb fake money”. It’s enriching a bunch of less-than-super forecasters who will make bets and only lose money with time.
Real money markets aren’t actually different, dumb money can move into a market from outside.
The p2w element of manifold may also reduce it’s predictive power, since willingness to pay for mana may be uncorrelated with predictive ability.
Do you expect them to make bad bets? If so, I disagree and I think you might be too confident given the evidence you have. We can check this belief against reality by looking at the total profit earned by my referred users here. If their profit goes up over time, they are making good bets; otherwise, they are making bad bets. At the moment, they are at +13063 mana.
Update:
Ah, but what is the average trader’s profit?