Agree. Also I realized when I gave lk-99 as an example : it doesn’t take a superforecaster to guess a room temperature superconductor market might be overvalued. So the effect of that trading event is moving “dumb fake money” to “slightly less dumb fake money”. It’s enriching a bunch of less-than-super forecasters who will make bets and only lose money with time.
Real money markets aren’t actually different, dumb money can move into a market from outside.
The p2w element of manifold may also reduce it’s predictive power, since willingness to pay for mana may be uncorrelated with predictive ability.
Agree. Also I realized when I gave lk-99 as an example : it doesn’t take a superforecaster to guess a room temperature superconductor market might be overvalued. So the effect of that trading event is moving “dumb fake money” to “slightly less dumb fake money”. It’s enriching a bunch of less-than-super forecasters who will make bets and only lose money with time.
Real money markets aren’t actually different, dumb money can move into a market from outside.
The p2w element of manifold may also reduce it’s predictive power, since willingness to pay for mana may be uncorrelated with predictive ability.