Rank the tasks by size as measured by e.g. energy content. Playing Minecraft, proving math theorems, and driving a theologically confused person to psychosis are all small in terms of energy, especially when considering that the models are not consistently driving anyone to psychosis and thus the theologically confused person who was driven to psychosis was probably highly predisposed to it.
Art competitions are more significant, but AFAIK the times when it won art competitions, it relied on human guidance. I tried to ask ChatGPT to make a picture that could win an art competition without giving it any more guidance, and it made this, which yes is extremely beautiful, but also seems deeply Gnostic and so probably unlikely to win great art competitions. AI art thus seems more suited for Gnostic decoration than for greatness. (Maybe healthy people will eventually develop an aversion to it? Already seems on the way; e.g. art competitions tend to forbid AI art.)
So, next token prediction can succeed in a lot of pathetic tasks. It has also gotten a lot of data with examples of completions of pathetic tasks. Thus the success doesn’t rely on homogeneity (extrapolation), it relies on heterogeneity of data (interpolation).
It’s not an accident that it has data on weak tasks. There are more instances of small forms than large forms, so there is more data available on the smaller forms. In order to get the data on the larger forms, it will take work to integrate it with the world, and let the data drill into the AI.
I read your gnostic/pagan stuff and chuckled over the “degeneracy [ranking where] Paganism < … < Gnosticism < Atheism < Buddhism”.
I think I’ll be better able to steelman you in the future and I’m sorry if I caused you to feel misrepresented with my previous attempt. I hadn’t realized that the vibe you’re trying to serve is so Nietzschean.
Just to clarify, when you say “pathetic” it is is not intended to evoke “pathos” and function as an even hypothetically possible compliment regarding a wise and pleasant deployment of feelings (even subtle feelings) in accord with reason, that could be unified and balanced to easily and pleasantly guide persons into actions in accord with The Good after thoughtful cultivation...
...but rather I suspect you intended it as a near semantic neighbor (but with opposite moral valence) of something like “precious” (as an insult (as it is in some idiolects)) in that both “precious and pathetic things” are similarly weak and small and in need of help.
Like the central thing you’re trying to communicate with the word “pathetic” (I think, but am not sure, and hence I’m seeking clarification) is to notice that entities labeled with that adjective could hypothetically be beloved and cared for… but you want to highlight how such things are also sort of worthy of contempt and might deserve abandonment.
We could argue: Such things are puny. They will not be good allies. They are not good role models. They won’t autonomously grow. They lack the power to even access whole regimes of coherently possible data gathering loops. They “will not win” and so, if you’re seeking “systematized winning”, such “pathetic” things are not where you should look. Is this something like what you’re trying to point to by invoking “patheticness” so centrally in a discussion of “solving philosophy formally”?
Rank the tasks by size as measured by e.g. energy content. Playing Minecraft, proving math theorems, and driving a theologically confused person to psychosis are all small in terms of energy, especially when considering that the models are not consistently driving anyone to psychosis and thus the theologically confused person who was driven to psychosis was probably highly predisposed to it.
Art competitions are more significant, but AFAIK the times when it won art competitions, it relied on human guidance. I tried to ask ChatGPT to make a picture that could win an art competition without giving it any more guidance, and it made this, which yes is extremely beautiful, but also seems deeply Gnostic and so probably unlikely to win great art competitions. AI art thus seems more suited for Gnostic decoration than for greatness. (Maybe healthy people will eventually develop an aversion to it? Already seems on the way; e.g. art competitions tend to forbid AI art.)
So, next token prediction can succeed in a lot of pathetic tasks. It has also gotten a lot of data with examples of completions of pathetic tasks. Thus the success doesn’t rely on homogeneity (extrapolation), it relies on heterogeneity of data (interpolation).
It’s not an accident that it has data on weak tasks. There are more instances of small forms than large forms, so there is more data available on the smaller forms. In order to get the data on the larger forms, it will take work to integrate it with the world, and let the data drill into the AI.
I read your gnostic/pagan stuff and chuckled over the “degeneracy [ranking where] Paganism < … < Gnosticism < Atheism < Buddhism”.
I think I’ll be better able to steelman you in the future and I’m sorry if I caused you to feel misrepresented with my previous attempt. I hadn’t realized that the vibe you’re trying to serve is so Nietzschean.
Just to clarify, when you say “pathetic” it is is not intended to evoke “pathos” and function as an even hypothetically possible compliment regarding a wise and pleasant deployment of feelings (even subtle feelings) in accord with reason, that could be unified and balanced to easily and pleasantly guide persons into actions in accord with The Good after thoughtful cultivation...
...but rather I suspect you intended it as a near semantic neighbor (but with opposite moral valence) of something like “precious” (as an insult (as it is in some idiolects)) in that both “precious and pathetic things” are similarly weak and small and in need of help.
Like the central thing you’re trying to communicate with the word “pathetic” (I think, but am not sure, and hence I’m seeking clarification) is to notice that entities labeled with that adjective could hypothetically be beloved and cared for… but you want to highlight how such things are also sort of worthy of contempt and might deserve abandonment.
We could argue: Such things are puny. They will not be good allies. They are not good role models. They won’t autonomously grow. They lack the power to even access whole regimes of coherently possible data gathering loops. They “will not win” and so, if you’re seeking “systematized winning”, such “pathetic” things are not where you should look. Is this something like what you’re trying to point to by invoking “patheticness” so centrally in a discussion of “solving philosophy formally”?