There’s also the potential for military uses of starship, outlined here.
Also, along with asteroid mining comes the possibility of using asteroids as WMD’s.
And of course, a colony on Mars will make humanity somewhat more robust to nuclear war, supervolcanoes, etc.
All that being said, and as a SpaceX fanboy myself, I don’t think any of these very exciting effects will change anything really important. I think what the future is like depends on how AGI goes, and I have somewhat short timelines (median 2032ish), and I don’t think any of these effects will noticeably influence how AGI goes. :/
How much Tungsten would you need, accelerated to what speed, to cause the equivalent of the impact that killed the dinosaurs? Too much, I bet. (I haven’t calculated it) Whereas that sort of thing could be done easily with asteroids.
OK, let me reformulate the question: How cost effective is tungsten compared to asteroids, at city-destroying levels of power? (I agree destroying the whole world is less likely to be attempted)
Here are my predictions for SpaceX’s impact in the next decade or two:
Next 10 years, >50% credence:
--Price per kg to LEO drops an order of magnitude from what SpaceX currently charges customers
--Starlink goes online and makes SpaceX billions in profit per year, while also being a huge US military asset and bringing good cheap internet to rural areas, airplanes, the ocean, etc.
--A moon base and mars colony get started (not sure if there will be humans on the mars colony, but at least robot Starships full of supplies)
--Space hotel is under construction, along with all sorts of plans for manufacturing things in space etc.
--DearMoon has happened
Note that all of the above except Starlink is highly correlated; it all depends on getting Starship to work more or less as planned. If Starship doesn’t work, only Starlink will happen from the above list.
Next 20 years, >50% credence:
--Price per kg to LEO drops an additional order of magnitude
--An actual mars colony with thousands of people in it
--Asteroid mining on a massive scale; asteroids pushed into Earth orbit and then disassembled there for materials
--Awesome space hotel with tens of thousands of visitors per year
--At least one really cool product manufactured primarily in space, maybe some sort of chip or metamaterial.
Next 20 years, <50% credence but might still happen:
--Something like Starship used for point-to-point transport on Earth
--Something like Starship used to deliver drones and/or troops into combat
--A self-sustaining Mars colony
As you can see, I’m a bit of a SpaceX fanboy. :) I admit it’s entirely possible I’m being overoptimistic here; I haven’t sat down and tried to forecast things seriously.
Thing is though, even if AGI takes 30 years to arrive, and even if all of the above things happen, I don’t see it changing the strategic picture much. AI alignment needs to be solved, AI policy needs to be made, etc. and awesome space stuff doesn’t make it easier or harder.
There’s also the potential for military uses of starship, outlined here.
Also, along with asteroid mining comes the possibility of using asteroids as WMD’s.
And of course, a colony on Mars will make humanity somewhat more robust to nuclear war, supervolcanoes, etc.
All that being said, and as a SpaceX fanboy myself, I don’t think any of these very exciting effects will change anything really important. I think what the future is like depends on how AGI goes, and I have somewhat short timelines (median 2032ish), and I don’t think any of these effects will noticeably influence how AGI goes. :/
It’s unclear why anyone would do that over dropping Tungsten rods as WMD’s.
How much Tungsten would you need, accelerated to what speed, to cause the equivalent of the impact that killed the dinosaurs? Too much, I bet. (I haven’t calculated it) Whereas that sort of thing could be done easily with asteroids.
It’s unclear to me why someone would want that kind of impact to achieve military objectives.
OK, let me reformulate the question: How cost effective is tungsten compared to asteroids, at city-destroying levels of power? (I agree destroying the whole world is less likely to be attempted)
In a world where the AGI timelines are far in the future, how would you estimate the SpaceX impact in the next decade or two?
Here are my predictions for SpaceX’s impact in the next decade or two:
Next 10 years, >50% credence:
--Price per kg to LEO drops an order of magnitude from what SpaceX currently charges customers
--Starlink goes online and makes SpaceX billions in profit per year, while also being a huge US military asset and bringing good cheap internet to rural areas, airplanes, the ocean, etc.
--A moon base and mars colony get started (not sure if there will be humans on the mars colony, but at least robot Starships full of supplies)
--Space hotel is under construction, along with all sorts of plans for manufacturing things in space etc.
--DearMoon has happened
Note that all of the above except Starlink is highly correlated; it all depends on getting Starship to work more or less as planned. If Starship doesn’t work, only Starlink will happen from the above list.
Next 20 years, >50% credence:
--Price per kg to LEO drops an additional order of magnitude
--An actual mars colony with thousands of people in it
--Asteroid mining on a massive scale; asteroids pushed into Earth orbit and then disassembled there for materials
--Awesome space hotel with tens of thousands of visitors per year
--At least one really cool product manufactured primarily in space, maybe some sort of chip or metamaterial.
Next 20 years, <50% credence but might still happen:
--Something like Starship used for point-to-point transport on Earth
--Something like Starship used to deliver drones and/or troops into combat
--A self-sustaining Mars colony
As you can see, I’m a bit of a SpaceX fanboy. :) I admit it’s entirely possible I’m being overoptimistic here; I haven’t sat down and tried to forecast things seriously.
Thing is though, even if AGI takes 30 years to arrive, and even if all of the above things happen, I don’t see it changing the strategic picture much. AI alignment needs to be solved, AI policy needs to be made, etc. and awesome space stuff doesn’t make it easier or harder.