I think that if you plot sane agent’s probability of doomsday by time, it won’t be some really weird shaped curve with incredibly sharp (Planck-time sharp) peaks at various points highly specific to the internal details of the agent. Really, it’s as if someone with a weird number-fear synasthesia looked at the list of years, since the alleged birth of Christ and picked the scariest numbers, then prophesied doomsday at those years. It is clearly completely insane.
I think that if you plot sane agent’s probability of doomsday by time, it won’t be some really weird shaped curve with incredibly sharp (Planck-time sharp) peaks at various points highly specific to the internal details of the agent. Really, it’s as if someone with a weird number-fear synasthesia looked at the list of years, since the alleged birth of Christ and picked the scariest numbers, then prophesied doomsday at those years. It is clearly completely insane.