In my experience there’s a positive correlation where the more someone looks into the trends of the AGI literature, the sooner they think it will be, even in cases where they hope it’s a long ways away. Naively, I don’t get the impression that the bias you pointed out is strongly affecting e.g. Legg or Schmidhuber. I got the impression that your distribution has a median later than most AGI folk including those at SIAI (as far as I can tell; I may be wrong about the views of some SIAI people.). Are you very familiar with the AGI literature, or do you believe your naive outside view beats their inside view plus outside view corrections (insofar as anyone knows how to do such corrections)? You’ve put way more thought into Singularity scenarios than most anyone else. To what extent do you think folk like me should update on your beliefs?
In my experience there’s a positive correlation where the more someone looks into the trends of the AGI literature, the sooner they think it will be, even in cases where they hope it’s a long ways away. Naively, I don’t get the impression that the bias you pointed out is strongly affecting e.g. Legg or Schmidhuber. I got the impression that your distribution has a median later than most AGI folk including those at SIAI (as far as I can tell; I may be wrong about the views of some SIAI people.). Are you very familiar with the AGI literature, or do you believe your naive outside view beats their inside view plus outside view corrections (insofar as anyone knows how to do such corrections)? You’ve put way more thought into Singularity scenarios than most anyone else. To what extent do you think folk like me should update on your beliefs?